Market Overview for Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) on 2025-11-11

Summary
• Price declined from 106,287 to 104,711, with a bearish bias confirmed by key support levels.
• MACD and RSI signaled weakening momentum and oversold conditions.
• Bollinger Bands showed a recent expansion, with price near the lower band.

Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) opened at 105,122.94 on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 107,500.00, and closed at 104,711 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET. The total 24-hour volume was 13,946.79 BTC, while the notional turnover was approximately $1.48 billion, showing moderate liquidity.

The price action over the 24-hour period formed a bearish pattern, with a strong initial rally followed by a sustained decline. Key support levels emerged around 104,784 and 104,349, both of which were tested and held. A doji candle formed near 104,784, signaling indecision among buyers, while a bearish engulfing pattern developed near 105,000. These patterns suggest that the downward trend could continue if the 104,349 level is breached.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both remained above price, confirming the bearish trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was just above the 200-period MA, indicating a potential bearish crossover in the near term. The 100-period MA acted as a weak resistance, with price failing to hold above it in the final hours of the 24-hour period.

The MACD (12,26,9) showed a bearish crossover and was trending downward, while the RSI(14) fell into oversold territory, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. However, the divergence in the RSI and MACD with price suggests that the underlying momentum remains bearish. The Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the initial rally, with price closing near the lower band, indicating a high volatility environment and potential for a continuation of the downtrend.

Volume was concentrated in the lower half of the 24-hour period, especially after the price crossed below the 105,000 level. Notional turnover spiked during the 23:00–00:00 ET timeframe, aligning with the bearish breakout. This suggests strong conviction from sellers during the critical price move.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the key high at 107,500 and the low at 104,711 highlighted the 61.8% level near 105,900 as a potential short-term resistance. However, the price failed to find buyers above 105,200, which sits close to the 38.2% retracement level, suggesting that the bearish trend is intact.

The next 24 hours may see further testing of the 104,349 support level, with a potential short-term bounce into the 105,000 zone. Traders should remain cautious of any break below 104,349, which could accelerate the decline into the next support at 103,170. As always, volatility remains high, and unexpected price swings are likely.

Backtest Hypothesis
To evaluate the recent bearish momentum and divergence in BTCUSDT, a backtest strategy focused on MACD top divergence and confirmation can provide objective insight. This approach uses a combination of price swing highs and MACD line behavior to identify shorting opportunities, with clear rules for entry and exit. A daily chart interval (2022-01-01 to 2025-11-10) is suitable for capturing the broader trend and divergence signals. A common MACD top divergence entry rule is where price forms a higher swing high than the previous one (within the last 20 bars) while the MACD line forms a lower high. This divergence would trigger a short signal at the close of the candle. For confirmation, a bearish MACD crossover (MACD line crossing below the signal line) is used to exit the trade, aligning with the trend reversal. This method is data-driven and minimizes subjectivity, making it ideal for testing on BTCUSDT over the past four years. Optional risk controls such as a 8% stop-loss or 10% take-profit can be added if needed, but the strategy will first be tested in its pure form to assess its baseline performance.