Market Overview for Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) as of 2025-11-10

Summary
• Bitcoin/Tether traded in a tight range, with a 24-hour low of $103,427 and a high of $106,556.
• Key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the recent 15-minute high appears to be offering initial support at $105,900.
• Momentum indicators signal overbought conditions at the peak but lack clear bearish divergence.
• Volume spiked during the $104k to $106.5k rally, confirming strength in the upper range.

Opening Narrative

Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) opened at $103,427.4 on 2025-11-09 12:00 ET, hitting a high of $106,556.6 and a low of $103,427.4 before closing at $105,944.17 on 2025-11-10 12:00 ET. Total volume amounted to approximately 21,126.47 BTC, with notional turnover of about $2.25B over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a bullish flag pattern during the $104k to $106.5k move, suggesting a potential continuation. A notable bullish engulfing pattern appeared around 2025-11-10 07:00–07:15 ET as BTCUSDT broke above a prior consolidation range. A doji formed near $105,700, signaling temporary indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, BTCUSDT closed above both the 20-EMA ($105,870) and the 50-EMA ($105,760), suggesting short-term bullish momentum. On the daily chart, price remains above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, but near the 200-day MA ($105,150), indicating a potential test of longer-term trend strength.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed above zero and remained in positive territory, reinforcing bullish momentum. RSI reached 78 during the peak rally, pointing to overbought conditions, but has since retracted to ~62, maintaining a constructive bias. There is no strong bearish divergence yet.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the $104k to $106.5k move, with the upper band reaching $106,600 and the lower band near $104,300. Price remains above the 20-period middle Bollinger band, indicating a strong bullish breakout from the consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakout above $105,000, peaking around 2025-11-10 00:30–01:00 ET with over 900k traded in a few hours. Notional turnover mirrored the price move, with no clear divergence, supporting the bullish narrative.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the $103k low to the $106.5k high is at $105,900, which appears to be currently offering support. The 50% retracement is at $104,978, where buyers previously intervened.

Backtest Hypothesis

The MACD-based strategy tested over three years (2022–2025) underperformed a simple buy-and-hold approach, delivering a negative total return of -25.5% and a poor Sharpe ratio of -0.29. Despite some winning trades averaging +4.4%, the high volatility and lack of a stop-loss mechanism led to significant drawdowns and underperformance. This suggests that using MACD alone without additional risk controls or trend filters may not be sufficient in the volatile BTCUSDT market. Strategies incorporating tighter risk management—such as stop-losses, longer holding windows, or multi-indicator setups—could yield better results.

Bitcoin/Tether remains in a strong consolidation phase following the recent rally, with key support and resistance levels clearly defined. The next 24 hours could see a test of the $105,900 level for confirmation. Traders should remain cautious, as overbought conditions and a lack of divergences may delay a meaningful correction. A break below $105,500 could trigger a retest of earlier support at $104,800, increasing the risk of a pullback.