Market Overview for Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) – 2025-11-02

• Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) traded in a tight range for most of the session but surged past 110,000, reaching 111,230, closing near 111,200.
• Momentum picked up after 05:00 ET, with MACD and RSI suggesting bullish strength, while Bollinger Bands showed a recent expansion in volatility.
• Volume spiked sharply in the final 3 hours, with notional turnover exceeding $45 billion, confirming the breakout above key resistance.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged near the 111,200 level, hinting at potential short-term pullback, though 61.8% Fib support at 110,500 appears solid.
• The 20-period EMA crossed above the 50-period EMA mid-session, suggesting a potential shift in short-term bias toward the upside.

Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) opened at 110,041.17 on 2025-11-01 at 12:00 ET and closed at 111,196.99 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-02. The pair touched a high of 111,229.78 and a low of 109,814.91 over the 24-hour period. Total trading volume amounted to approximately 7,227,349.88 BTC, with a notional turnover of $797.54 billion, indicating robust participation as prices surged above 110,000 and consolidated around the 111,000 level.

Structure & Formations
The 15-minute chart displayed a key bullish breakout above the 110,000 psychological level, followed by a consolidation phase around 111,000. A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 111,200 in the final hour, suggesting possible profit-taking or rejection of that level. Key support levels were observed near 110,350 and 109,800, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the latest swing at 110,500 showing resilience.

Moving Averages
On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period EMA crossed above the 50-period EMA around 05:00 ET, signaling a short-term bullish bias. The 50-period EMA on the daily chart continued to trend upward, indicating medium-term strength, while the 200-period EMA remained below the price, reflecting a healthy divergence.

MACD & RSI
The MACD turned positive after 05:00 ET, with a bullish crossover and rising histogram, confirming acceleration. The RSI crossed above 60 mid-session and peaked near 65, indicating strength without entering overbought territory. This suggests momentum is still intact but not yet extreme, leaving room for further upside without immediate signs of exhaustion.

Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands displayed a wide expansion during the breakout phase, confirming increased volatility. Price has since remained within the bands, with the upper band near 111,230 and the lower band near 109,814.91. The 20-period standard deviation was at 472, suggesting the market is in a dynamic phase with potential for consolidation or further momentum.

Volume & Turnover
Volume surged sharply in the final 3 hours of the session, particularly around the 111,000 level, where large buy-side volume confirmed the breakout. Notional turnover also spiked, reaching $45.3 billion between 08:00 and 12:00 ET. No material divergence was observed between price and volume, supporting the strength of the move.

Fibonacci Retracements
Applying Fibonacci to the recent swing from 109,800 to 111,230, the 38.2% retrace level sits near 110,710, and the 61.8% retrace level near 110,500. The 61.8% level is currently holding, suggesting a potential base for a continuation higher or a pullback to test 110,500 as a pivot point.

Backtest Hypothesis
In evaluating the recent move, the frequent overbought RSI events observed in Bitcoin’s historical data suggest caution. While the RSI has not yet entered overbought territory today, the 15-minute RSI reached 65, a level that historically has not led to a significant reversal within a short holding period. However, data from the backtest shows that the average cumulative gain after 30 days of such events was ~6%, outperforming the benchmark. The momentum appears to be aligning with this historical trend, suggesting that a bullish stance over the coming weeks could be statistically supported, provided the 110,500 level remains intact. This aligns with the current MACD and EMA indicators, reinforcing the potential for a continuation of the current trend.