Market Overview: Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) – 2025-10-13

• Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) closed at $114,312.09, up from the 24-hour open of $112,633.31, forming a strong bullish trend.
• Volatility surged during the 19:15–20:15 ET window, with a 4.5% price swing and high volume indicating strong participation.
• Key resistance appears at $115,300–115,500, with Fibonacci 61.8% support near $113,600 supporting the bullish bias.
• RSI and MACD show positive momentum, but overbought conditions suggest a near-term pullback could follow.
• Bollinger Bands reflect a 24-hour volatility expansion, with prices currently sitting near the upper band.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-13, BTCUSDT opened at $112,633.31 and closed at $114,312.09 after trading between $112,496.73 and $115,554.83. The pair saw a total volume of 14,471.96 BTC traded, equating to a notional turnover of approximately $1.64 billion. The price structure shows consistent upward momentum throughout the 24-hour window, with several bullish engulfing patterns and strong volume surges during key price breakouts.

The 15-minute OHLCV data reveals a clear dominance of bullish candlestick formations over bearish ones, with a key 2-hour breakout from $114,000 to $115,300 in the early hours of 2025-10-13. A notable bullish engulfing pattern formed at the 22:15–23:15 ET timeframe, with volume increasing by over 50% compared to the prior hour. The price remained above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages for most of the session, suggesting short-term trend strength. However, the 50-period MA appears to be catching up, indicating a potential slowdown in upward momentum.

On the momentum side, the RSI closed near 65, signaling moderate overbought conditions without extreme divergence. MACD remains positive with a narrow histogram, suggesting that the bullish trend is running but may be losing steam. Bollinger Bands show a 24-hour volatility expansion, with prices closing near the upper band — a classic sign of potential exhaustion in the near term. Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the key $112,500 swing low to the $115,500 high show 61.8% support at $113,600, which has held multiple times in the 24-hour data. The next likely test for the bulls is the $115,300–115,500 resistance zone.

The market may test $115,300 as a near-term ceiling in the next 24 hours, but a pullback to $113,600–114,000 could offer a second buying opportunity. Investors should remain cautious of a potential overbought correction following the strong move up, particularly if volume declines and bearish candlestick patterns emerge.

Backtest Hypothesis

The “Bullish Engulfing – 3-day Hold” strategy, evaluated from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-13, demonstrates a positive edge in the BTCUSDT pairing. The strategy yielded a total return of approximately 90%, with an annualized return of 13.6% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.70. While the max drawdown of 35.8% indicates exposure to volatility, the average win of +3.71% and average loss of –2.97% support the potential for risk-managed application. The strategy’s reliance on 15-minute close prices and 3-day holding periods aligns well with the 2025-10-13 candlestick dynamics, where several bullish engulfing patterns emerged. The 50-period MA and RSI signals also support trend-following logic, making the strategy a relevant overlay for the current technical bias. However, as always, the effectiveness of this strategy should be re-evaluated on a rolling basis and adjusted for changing market conditions.