Market Overview for Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) on 2025-10-12

• Bitcoin consolidates around $111,800 after a volatile 24-hour session.
• Price tests key support and resistance levels with a bearish bias.
• RSI indicates overbought conditions, while volume shows divergences.
• Bollinger Bands widen as volatility surges toward late ET hours.
• Turnover spikes during a sharp drop below $111,000 early in the session.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-12, Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) opened at $112,059.99, reached a high of $113,381.60, and closed at $113,198.21, after hitting a low of $109,565.06. Total 24-hour volume stood at 13,622.6 BTC, while notional turnover reached approximately $1.5 billion.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours showed a sharp bearish breakdown from above $112,000 early in the session, followed by a rally back above $113,000 in the late hours. Key support levels tested included $111,000 and $109,500, with the latter acting as a temporary floor. On the 15-minute chart, a large bearish engulfing pattern was observed around 19:30 ET, confirming a short-term reversal. A bullish inside bar emerged at the close, suggesting a possible pause in the decline.

Moving Averages

Short-term momentum, as measured by the 20 and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart, remained bearish during the bulk of the session, with price consistently below these averages. The 50-period SMA was at approximately $112,800, while the 20-period SMA sat near $112,300. On the daily chart, Bitcoin remains above the 50-day and 100-day SMAs, indicating a longer-term bullish bias despite the 24-hour volatility.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the mid-to-late session, indicating a bearish momentum shift. Negative divergence between price and MACD was observed between 20:00 and 22:00 ET. The RSI approached 80, indicating overbought conditions toward the end of the session, suggesting potential for a pullback. However, RSI did not show a bearish divergence, keeping the door open for a short-term bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the early and late hours of the session, reflecting heightened volatility. Price spent a considerable portion of the 24-hour period in the upper third of the bands, especially during the rally above $113,000. A period of contraction occurred between 01:00 and 04:00 ET, signaling a potential setup for a breakout or breakdown.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume was elevated during the key price swings, particularly around the breakdown below $111,000 and the subsequent rally. Notional turnover spiked during these periods, confirming the strength of the moves. However, volume failed to confirm a new high as price surged above $113,000, suggesting some hesitation from buyers. A divergence between volume and price was observed between 19:45 and 20:30 ET, raising concerns about the sustainability of the bullish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart indicated that the recent pullback from $113,300 tested the 61.8% retracement level at $112,200 before rebounding. The 38.2% level at $112,900 appeared to provide a temporary resistance. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent bearish move from $113,381.60 to $109,565.06 stands at $111,980, which appears to be holding as a key support level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions on a retest of the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $111,980, with a stop loss below $111,000. A short entry may be considered on a close below this level, targeting a move toward the 38.2% level at $110,780. Given the bearish engulfing pattern and RSI divergence, this approach aligns well with the observed price structure, leveraging both momentum and key support/resistance levels for risk-defined trades.