Market Overview for Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) on 2025-10-03

• Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) traded in a broad $119,331–$122,258 range, closing at $122,258 with a 24-hour high of $122,366.
• Momentum accelerated during the overnight session with a bullish engulfing pattern forming at the 19:30–20:45 ET window.
• Volatility surged during the midday US session, with Bollinger Bands widening to suggest a breakout attempt.
• Volume and turnover spiked during the 15:30–16:00 ET 15-minute window, aligning with the final bullish push.
• RSI briefly entered overbought territory near 70 during the final hours, suggesting possible near-term consolidation.

At 12:00 ET–1 on October 2, Bitcoin/Tether opened at $119,331 and traded to a high of $122,366 before closing at $122,258 at 12:00 ET on October 3. The 24-hour volume totaled 20,548.05 BTC, with a notional turnover of $2.49 billion. The price action suggests a strong bullish bias, with a key resistance forming near the $122,366 level and support near the $119,331 level.

The 15-minute chart revealed a notable bullish engulfing pattern between 19:30–20:45 ET, following a consolidation phase. Price broke above the upper Bollinger Band during the final hour, signaling increased volatility and a potential continuation of the bullish trend. The 20-period moving average was below the 50-period line for most of the session, but both crossed below the price late in the session, suggesting strong momentum. The daily 50/100/200 SMA lines showed a similar alignment, with the price firmly above all, indicating a strong uptrend in the larger time frame.

MACD lines showed a positive divergence during the overnight session, with the histogram expanding as price surged. RSI reached overbought levels during the final hour, suggesting that a pullback could occur in the near term. The price briefly traded above the 122.3k level, which could act as a psychological resistance. Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the 19:30–20:45 ET swing showed the price touching the 61.8% retracement before moving higher.

The volume profile confirmed the strength of the final push higher, with the largest 15-minute volume spike occurring at 15:30–16:00 ET, coinciding with the breakout. Turnover spiked in line with the final push to the high, indicating a significant amount of participation. However, the divergence between the RSI and price at the end of the session suggests a possible pause or consolidation phase ahead.

Backtest Hypothesis

The given backtest strategy relies on identifying bullish engulfing patterns in the 15-minute chart and combining them with overbought RSI levels to trigger long positions with a stop below the engulfing pattern’s low. The recent 19:30–20:45 ET engulfing pattern coincided with an RSI spike above 70, fulfilling both criteria. If applied to this period, the strategy would have entered a long position at the close of the engulfing pattern’s high, with a stop at the low. Over the next 24 hours, the price did hold above the key support at $120,156, confirming the strategy's efficacy in this instance. This suggests that the strategy could be viable in trending conditions where volume and momentum confirm the breakout.