Market Overview for Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT): 2025-09-15

• BTC/USDT opened at $115,239.99, reached a high of $116,757.99, and closed at $114,721.04 on 2025-09-15.
• Price formed bullish continuation patterns in the early morning before fading into bearish divergence in the afternoon.
• High volatility seen after 4:30 AM ET as price surged to a 24-hour peak, followed by a sharp reversal.
• Total trading volume was ~10,177 BTC, with turnover of ~$1,166 million, showing high liquidity and activity.
• RSI and MACD suggested overbought conditions in the morning, followed by bearish momentum divergence by late afternoon.

Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) opened at $115,239.99 on 2025-09-14 and reached a 24-hour high of $116,757.99 before closing at $114,721.04 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-15. Total volume traded was approximately 10,177 BTC, with a notional turnover of around $1,166 million. The price experienced a sharp bullish breakout in the early morning hours before reversing into a bearish decline by the afternoon session.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels were identified at $114,700 and $114,400, both of which held during the afternoon sell-off. Resistance was tested around $115,500 and $116,000, with a failed breakout seen in the early morning at $116,757.99. Notable candlestick patterns include a bullish engulfing pattern at 4:30 AM ET and a bearish dark cloud cover forming from 10:30 AM to 11:45 AM. A long-legged doji at 3:30 AM ET suggested indecision ahead of the sharp upward move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price spent much of the session above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, confirming short-term bullish momentum. By late afternoon, the price fell below both, signaling a potential bearish shift. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 100-day SMAs were closely aligned near the 24-hour range, with the 200-day SMA acting as a long-term support at ~$113,000, though it was not tested during this period.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish after 9:00 AM ET, with the histogram showing a narrowing of bullish momentum and a subsequent bearish crossover. RSI hit overbought levels above 70 during the morning rally before dropping below 50 by 11:00 AM, indicating a shift in sentiment. Divergence between price and RSI in the afternoon suggested further downward pressure could follow.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased sharply in the early morning as price surged above the upper Bollinger Band, followed by a contraction as it fell back into the band by midday. The bands remained relatively wide throughout the session, reflecting ongoing market uncertainty. Price closed near the lower Bollinger Band at the end of the 24-hour period, hinting at potential short-term oversold conditions.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the early morning rally, especially between 4:30 AM and 6:15 AM ET, confirming the bullish breakout. However, turnover failed to match the price move, indicating some divergence between volume and price action. By late morning, volume declined sharply, suggesting weakening conviction in the upward move. The afternoon sell-off was accompanied by a moderate increase in volume, reinforcing the bearish reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 4:30 AM to 9:00 AM ET rally, price found support at the 61.8% retracement level around $115,250, followed by a breakdown to the 78.6% level near $114,700. On the daily chart, a retracement from the recent high of ~$116,800 to the low of ~$114,700 hit the 38.2% and 61.8% levels, aligning with observed support and resistance zones.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed divergence in RSI and the bearish MACD crossover during the afternoon, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short signal when price breaks below the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a close below a key Fibonacci support level. A stop-loss could be placed above the recent bullish engulfing pattern or at the 50-period moving average to manage risk. This strategy would aim to capitalize on short-term bearish momentum while minimizing exposure to sudden rebounds. Using 15-minute candles, this approach could be tested across multiple bullish cycles to assess its efficacy in managing directional trades during volatile sessions.