Market Overview for Bitcoin/Romanian Leu (BTCRON) – October 11, 2025

• BTCRON dropped 2.2% over 24 hours amid heightened bearish momentum and volume spikes.
• Key support tested at 501,262 RON with potential for further downside near 495,504 RON.
• Volatility surged during a 3.5-hour consolidation period, followed by a sharp sell-off.
• RSI suggests oversold conditions, but price-volume divergence raises bearish concerns.
• Bollinger Band contraction preceding the selloff signals a high-probability breakdown.

Bitcoin/Romanian Leu (BTCRON) opened at 525,958 RON on October 10 at 12:00 ET and closed at 505,624 RON on October 11 at the same time. The pair hit an intraday high of 525,958 RON and a low of 453,069 RON during a sharp selloff. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 3.69 BTC, with turnover reaching 195.8 million RON.

The price action showed a clear bearish shift in sentiment over the 24-hour period, with Bitcoin plunging from a 15-minute high of 525,958 RON to a low of 453,069 RON during a consolidation phase around 21:30–22:00 ET on October 10. This 72,889 RON drop occurred over just 1.5 hours and was accompanied by a surge in volume (0.521 BTC), suggesting a liquidation event or a major whale activity. The sell-off continued in a more gradual fashion, with price finding temporary support between 500,000–505,000 RON before stabilizing near 505,624 RON as of 12:00 ET.

The 15-minute chart revealed key technical signals that reinforced bearish bias. A hanging man pattern emerged at 512,238 RON, followed by a bearish engulfing at 514,462 RON, signaling possible exhaustion in the upward trend. A gravity zone formed between 504,000–506,000 RON, where price bounced multiple times over the 24-hour period, suggesting a critical short-term floor. Bollinger Bands were observed contracting between 21:30 and 22:00 ET, before the price broke out to the downside with high volatility, indicating a high-probability breakdown.

Rising volume did not correspond to rising price, creating a bearish divergence in the final 6 hours. RSI entered oversold territory below 30 for several 15-minute periods, but price failed to recover, signaling a lack of buying interest. MACD showed a bearish crossover and remained negative throughout, confirming the prolonged downward momentum. Fibonacci retracement levels from the 453,069–525,958 RON swing were critical, with the 61.8% retracement (502,710 RON) failing to hold, suggesting further bearish pressure is likely.

The key support levels currently are 501,262 RON and 495,504 RON, while resistance sits at 504,165 RON and 505,624 RON. A break below 501,262 RON would likely target the 495,504 RON level. If buying interest materializes above 505,624 RON, a retest of the 508,553–510,146 RON range could follow, but bearish momentum remains strong.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential strategy to test would involve a short-entry trigger at 508,553 RON, with a stop above 510,146 RON and a target of 501,262 RON. This setup is based on the bearish engulfing pattern and the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level, where price failed to hold and continued lower. Exit signals could be based on either a MACD bullish crossover or a 10% loss threshold. Historical data from the past 24 hours suggests that this strategy has a high probability of success, provided volatility remains elevated and volume continues to confirm bearish bias.