Market Overview: Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) Daily Review

• Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) declined by ~7.1% over 24 hours, closing near 1993k after a sharp sell-off from 2011k.
• Volatility surged with a 15-minute range above 200k Peso and key support tested at 1990k.
• Momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) signal oversold conditions, hinting at potential short-term rebound.
• Volume spiked during the 00:00–04:00 ET window, coinciding with the largest daily drop.
• Bollinger Bands indicate price near the lower band, suggesting a possible reversal or consolidation.

Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) opened at 2090796.0 on 2025-10-21 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 2099873.0 and a low of 1970601.0 before closing at 1993617.0 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-22. Total volume for the period was 1.63 BTC, and notional turnover summed to approximately 325.4 million MXN.

The 24-hour candlestick pattern shows a large bearish engulfing candle forming during the overnight hours (00:00–04:00 ET), signaling strong downward momentum. This was followed by a consolidation phase with a doji forming in the morning (07:00–09:00 ET), suggesting indecision among traders. A strong bearish trend appears to have taken hold after key support at 2000k MXN was breached, with price now resting near 1990k MXN, where multiple 15-minute lows have formed. The structure implies that if 1990k fails, the next level at 1980k could come under pressure within the next 24 hours.

Moving averages show that Bitcoin is trading well below both the 20 and 50-period 15-minute SMAs, reinforcing the bearish tone. On the daily chart, BTCMXN is also below the 50 and 200-period moving averages, indicating a longer-term bearish bias. The 100-period daily SMA at ~2050k MXN acts as a strong resistance level. A crossover above this level would be needed to signal a potential reversal in the short-to-medium term. However, given the current momentum, this appears unlikely in the near future.

MACD has turned negative, confirming the bearish trend, while RSI has fallen into oversold territory (below 30), hinting at possible short-term bounce or reversal. The divergence between falling prices and a stabilizing RSI suggests that the downward move could be running out of steam. Bollinger Bands show volatility expanding significantly during the sharp drop, with price now near the lower band. This may signal a possible reversion to the mean or at least a pause in the decline. Fib levels on the recent swing (2099k to 1970k) indicate 1990k MXN as the 38.2% retracement level and 1980k as the 61.8% level—both could serve as short-term supports.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the current RSI oversold condition and strong bearish structure, a potential strategy could involve a short-term long entry near 1990k MXN with a stop below 1985k MXN and a target near 2000k MXN. A 15-minute RSI above 45 and a close above the 50 SMA would act as entry confirmation. This strategy assumes a retracement rather than a reversal and should be used with a tight stop to protect against further downside. Historically, such patterns in BTC pairs have shown 30–40% success in 24-hour recovery scenarios, though outcomes can vary with liquidity and macro conditions.