Market Overview for Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN)

Summary
• Price dropped 5.3% over 24 hours, with a bearish breakdown below key support at 1.82 million MXN.
• Volume surged during the selloff, confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI approached oversold levels, hinting at potential short-term reversal.

Market Performance and Structure

Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) opened at 1,848,770 MXN on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1,783,716 MXN at the same time on 2025-11-14. The 24-hour high and low were 1,849,287 MXN and 1,780,752 MXN, respectively. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 9.398 BTC, while notional turnover reached approximately 16.725 million MXN.

The price action revealed a clear bearish structure, with a breakdown from a key support level near 1.82 million MXN, confirmed by a large bearish candle and a follow-through decline. The formation suggests a continuation of the downward trend in the near term.

Moving Averages and Trend Clarity

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. These averages have been in a clear downtrend over the past 24 hours. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is also below the 100-period and 200-period MAs, indicating a broader bearish trend in place.

The current price is comfortably below all three major moving averages (50/100/200), suggesting the bearish momentum is not just short-term noise but part of a larger downward trajectory.

Momentum and Volatility Analysis

The MACD has crossed below the zero line, with a bearish divergence forming as price continues lower while the MACD line remains weak. The RSI has dipped close to oversold levels, at 32, suggesting the sell-off could pause or reverse in the short term, though a reversal is not guaranteed.

Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility, with the price currently near the lower band, indicating that the recent decline has been orderly and consistent with the wider trend. No significant contractions or expansions in volatility were observed over the past 24 hours.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume increased significantly during the breakdown below 1.82 million MXN, confirming the bearish move. The largest volume spike occurred during the 15-minute candle at 20:45 ET on 2025-11-13, where volume reached 0.57 BTC and the price moved sharply lower.

Notional turnover also rose in tandem with the price decline, reinforcing the bearish conviction. No divergence between volume and price was observed, which supports the integrity of the downward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements applied to the recent 15-minute swing indicate that the current price is close to the 61.8% retracement level of the prior upward move. This level has acted as a key resistance-turned-support during the breakdown, and the price now appears to be testing this critical area for a potential bounce or continuation.

On the daily chart, the price is near the 38.2% retracement level of a larger move, suggesting further downside could be in play if this level breaks.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest applied a strict bearish pattern — the Bearish Engulfing — as a short-sell entry, with a 15-minute candlestick definition. Stop-loss and take-profit levels were set at 8% and 10%, respectively, with a 10-trading-day maximum holding period.

This strategy aligns with the bearish momentum seen in today’s price action and confirms the strength of short-term reversal patterns in a downtrend. The use of 15-minute data highlights the efficiency of high-frequency signals in confirming trend continuation and short-term entries.