Market Overview for Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) – 2025-10-30

• Price dropped sharply after a key resistance level, opening at $2,065,175 and falling to a low of $2,000,000.
• High volatility seen with intraday swings of ~6% and a final close near $2,025,000 after a late rebound.
• Volume surged during the early sell-off, though turnover diverged in final hours, suggesting mixed positioning.
• RSI-14 for BTCUSD suggested oversold conditions during the downturn, hinting at potential short-term recovery.

Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) opened at $2,065,175 on October 29 at 12:00 ET and closed at $2,025,532 by 12:00 ET on October 30. The pair reached a high of $2,067,686 and a low of $2,000,000, marking a significant intraday drop. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 2.49 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately $5.16 billion MXN.

Structure & Formations
The price action exhibited a bearish continuation pattern, particularly in the early part of the 24-hour window. After a sharp decline post-17:00 ET, the formation of a bearish engulfing pattern and a long lower shadow signaled strong selling pressure. The low at $2,000,000 acted as a temporary support, with the price rebounding modestly in the final hours. However, the formation of a bearish pinbar and subsequent small bodies after the $2,000,000 support suggest a fragile rally.

Moving Averages and Volatility
On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA was below the 50-EMA, reinforcing a bearish bias, while the daily chart showed the price below all major moving averages (50/100/200). Volatility, as measured by the Bollinger Bands, expanded significantly during the early sell-off, with the price moving outside the lower band before stabilizing. This volatility expansion may indicate a potential reversal or exhaustion in the current trend, depending on whether the price sustains the new levels.

MACD and RSI
The MACD crossed below the signal line, indicating bearish momentum, and remained negative through the 24-hour window. The RSI-14 for BTCUSD (used as a proxy) fell below 30 during the sharp decline, signaling an oversold condition. While this could indicate a short-term bounce, the lack of confirmation from the MACD and the continued bearish bias on the chart suggest caution. The RSI remains in a vulnerable zone, and a failure to close above 30 could signal a deeper correction is still possible.

Volume and Turnover
Trading volume and turnover surged during the early part of the sell-off, peaking at 0.20 BTC around 18:45 ET. The volume was accompanied by large downward moves, confirming the bearish sentiment. However, in the final hours of the period, volume and turnover declined despite a price rebound, indicating that the rally may be driven by limited buyer participation. This divergence between volume and price raises questions about the sustainability of the short-term recovery.

Fibonacci Retracements
On the 15-minute chart, the $2,025,532 closing level aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the earlier $2065453–$2000000 swing. This level could serve as a key support or pivot point for the next 24 hours. On the daily chart, the price remains below the 50% retracement of the broader bull move, suggesting further consolidation or a test of the 38.2% level is likely. Traders may watch these levels closely for signs of a reversal or breakdown.

Backtest Hypothesis
To assess the viability of RSI-based signals using BTCUSD data as a proxy for BTCMXN, a backtesting strategy has been proposed. Buy signals are generated when RSI-14 falls below 30, and sell signals when RSI-14 rises above 50. This strategy has been applied to BTCUSD data from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-30. Before proceeding with the full back-test, it is important to evaluate two key questions:

1. Is it acceptable to use BTCUSD as a proxy for BTCMXN, or would this introduce unacceptable inaccuracies given the FX exposure of the latter?
2. Should the back-test include additional risk controls such as stop-loss, take-profit, or maximum holding periods, or should it be executed with the plain set of signals as described?

These considerations will determine whether the back-test results are robust and directly applicable to BTCMXN trading.