Market Overview for Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) on 2025-10-17

• Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) traded in a bearish consolidation pattern over 24 hours, closing near the session low.
• Momentum weakened across RSI and MACD, with prices testing lower Bollinger Band support.
• Notional turnover remained moderate, with volume spikes observed during sharp declines.
• A Bearish Engulfing pattern and Fibonacci retracement levels suggest further downside risk.

Opening Summary and Market Performance

Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) opened at 2,028,153.0 MXN on 2025-10-16 at 16:00 ET and closed at 1,957,969.0 MXN on 2025-10-17 at 12:00 ET, registering a 24-hour range of 1,944,262.0 MXN to 2,028,153.0 MXN. Total volume traded over the period was approximately 1.707 BTC, while notional turnover amounted to around 339.8 million MXN. The price has shown a consistent bearish bias, with multiple bearish reversals and a lack of sustained bullish momentum.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels have formed around 1,944,000 MXN and 1,930,000 MXN, based on recent retests and failed breakouts. Resistance is currently at the 1,960,000 MXN level, where the price has struggled to find conviction. Notable bearish patterns include a Bearish Engulfing at the session high and a Hanging Man at key support levels. These formations suggest bearish exhaustion may not yet have been reached, and further breakdowns into the 1,930,000 MXN range appear probable.

Moving Averages and Volatility

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average is bearishly positioned below the 50-period average, reinforcing the short-term downtrend. On the daily timeframe, the 50- and 100-day averages are both below the 200-day line, indicating a longer-term bearish tilt. Bollinger Bands show a moderate contraction during midday hours, followed by an expansion as the price dropped sharply, suggesting increased volatility and potential trend continuation.

Momentum and Overbought/Oversold Conditions

The RSI has spent much of the 24-hour period in oversold territory below 30, indicating deep bearish momentum. However, it has not shown significant divergence from price, meaning the oversold condition aligns with the ongoing downtrend. MACD remains bearish with both the line and signal below zero, reinforcing the expectation of further price weakness unless a strong bullish reversal emerges.

Volume and Turnover

Volume was moderate but spiked during sharp selloffs, particularly between 06:00 and 08:00 ET and again around 11:30 to 12:00 ET. Turnover increased alongside these price declines, suggesting increased selling pressure. However, the overall volume profile remains below the 24-hour average, indicating limited participation from large institutional players during this session.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the price tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of a key bearish swing before breaking below it, suggesting further downside to the 1,930,000 MXN level. On the daily chart, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracements align with previous support zones, reinforcing the idea that these levels will remain critical for near-term price behavior.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the potential reliability of the Bearish Engulfing pattern observed in BTCMXN, a backtest could be designed to assess the average price movement following the pattern’s formation over a historical dataset. The strategy would aim to enter a short position at the close of the engulfing candle, with a stop-loss placed above the high of the bullish predecessor and a take-profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci level below the pattern. This approach aligns with the bearish bias observed in the 24-hour data and could be used to assess whether BTCMXN is likely to continue its trend or experience a reversal in the short term.