Market Overview for Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) on 2025-10-13

• Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) opened at 2,124,834 MXN and closed at 2,122,240 MXN, with a 24-hour high of 2,170,787 MXN and a low of 2,110,033 MXN.
• Price moved in a choppy, range-bound manner after hitting a strong intraday high, showing no clear directional bias.
• A sharp bearish reversal occurred after 21:30 ET, with a 15-minute candle closing near its low and signaling potential exhaustion in the upward leg.
• Turnover was unevenly distributed, with notable volume surges during midday and overnight trading.
• RSI and MACD showed mixed signals, with RSI hovering around mid-levels, and MACD crossing into negative territory toward the close.

Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) opened at 2,124,834 MXN and closed at 2,122,240 MXN, with a 24-hour high of 2,170,787 MXN and a low of 2,110,033 MXN. The total volume traded over the past 24 hours was approximately 1.38 BTC, with notional turnover reaching around 290.2 million MXN. Price action showed intermittent attempts to regain bullish momentum but faced recurring pressure near key psychological thresholds around 2.16 million MXN and 2.14 million MXN.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed mixed candlestick structure, with a few bearish and bullish engulfing patterns, notably at 21:30 ET and 04:45 ET. A long lower shadow at 04:45 ET failed to confirm a strong bullish reversal, while the bearish engulfing at 21:30 ET marked a turning point in the trend. A doji at 19:45 ET and another at 12:00 ET indicated indecision among traders in both the afternoon and early evening sessions. Price action showed a lack of clear trend continuation, with multiple tests of 2.14 million MXN failing to break through.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained in convergence, suggesting a neutral-to-bearish bias in the short term. The 50-period MA acted as a dynamic resistance level for much of the session. Over the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA sat above the 100- and 200-period MAs, indicating a slightly bullish but weakening longer-term structure.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained in a bearish crossover by session close, with a negative histogram widening toward the end of the session, signaling growing bearish momentum. The RSI hovered near 50 throughout most of the session, showing no clear overbought or oversold signals. However, after 21:30 ET, a bearish divergence formed between price and RSI, suggesting weakening bullish conviction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained elevated for much of the session, with Bollinger Bands expanding after the 21:30 ET bearish engulfing pattern. The price closed just above the middle band but remained within the upper and lower boundaries, showing no extreme volatility. A contraction in band width occurred between 02:30 and 04:30 ET, indicating a period of consolidation that failed to produce a breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume distribution was uneven, with a sharp increase in volume at 21:30 ET coinciding with the bearish reversal. The largest notional turnover occurred during a 20:30–20:45 ET period, where over 47 million MXN was exchanged. Divergences between price and volume were minimal, suggesting broad participation in price movements.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the key Fibonacci retracement levels from the 2,110,033 MXN low and 2,170,787 MXN high included the 61.8% level at around 2,145,000 MXN and the 38.2% level at approximately 2,140,000 MXN. Price found resistance near the 61.8% level, suggesting a potential short-term ceiling.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the absence of recognized "Bullish Engulfing" pattern data for the BTCMXN pair, an alternative approach is required. If the analysis were to proceed using a recognized pattern such as "Bullish Engulfing" for a more liquid pair (e.g., BTC-USD), the strategy would generate a daily signal to enter a long position upon the formation of a Bullish Engulfing candle. This would be held for one trading day and exited at the close. A backtest from January 1, 2022, to October 13, 2025, would evaluate the average return per trade, win rate, and maximum drawdown. The strategy assumes no slippage or transaction costs and would be evaluated using a 20/50-period moving average filter to avoid false signals. Given BTCMXN’s volatility and uneven volume distribution, a version of this strategy tailored to local liquidity conditions would be more appropriate for live deployment.