Market Overview for Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) – 2025-10-11

• Price fell from 2,229,028 to 1,905,000 BTCMXN during a sharp sell-off in the late 24 hours.
• Momentum indicators show oversold conditions as price nears a 1,900,000 level.
• Volatility surged with a 208,000-point range and high-volume spikes near key support levels.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged in the final hour, suggesting potential for a reversal.
• Turnover diverged from price declines, hinting at possible buying interest at lower levels.

24-Hour Price and Volume Summary

Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) opened at 2,213,899 and closed at 2,096,843, reaching a high of 2,349,500 and a low of 1,905,000. Total volume traded during the 24-hour window was approximately 14.83 BTC, while notional turnover amounted to roughly 32,850,794,483 MXN. Price action displayed a sharp bearish move in the early hours, followed by a consolidation phase and a potential reversal pattern in the final hour.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed several significant structures. The initial 15-minute candle at the start of the 24-hour window opened at 2,213,899 and closed lower, showing a bearish bias. A strong breakdown followed, reaching a low of 1,905,000 before stabilizing. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged in the last hour, with the open at 2,090,796 and the close at 2,096,843, suggesting a potential reversal. Key support levels are now forming around 1,900,000 and 1,850,000, while resistance is seen at 2,100,000 and 2,200,000.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have diverged, with price closing below both, indicating bearish momentum. For the daily chart, while we don’t have a full daily bar yet, the 50, 100, and 200-period averages from the prior days show BTCMXN is still in a bearish trend with the 50-day line acting as a key resistance level ahead of the next daily close.

MACD & RSI

The RSI has dropped significantly into oversold territory, hovering near 25, which typically suggests potential for a short-term reversal. The MACD line has also turned negative and crossed below the signal line, reinforcing bearish momentum. However, the divergence in RSI and the recent bullish engulfing pattern imply that traders should watch for signs of stabilization or a potential bounce from key support levels.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the decline, with price falling well below the lower Bollinger Band. This expansion suggests a period of heightened uncertainty and possible consolidation ahead. The current price is sitting just above the 2σ lower band, which could act as a short-term support. A reversal from this level would indicate a potential bounce, while a break below it would confirm deeper bearish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover were highest during the sharp decline, particularly around the time BTCMXN dropped below 2,100,000. The large volume at those levels confirmed the bearish move. However, in the final hour, volume was relatively light despite a significant price increase. This divergence could suggest either a short-covering rally or early accumulation at lower levels, warranting further observation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the recent 15-minute swing from 2,349,500 to 1,905,000, key retracement levels have been tested. BTCMXN closed near the 61.8% level (2,100,000), which now appears to be acting as both a potential support and a psychological level. If the price continues to rise, the 78.6% retracement level at around 2,270,000 may become the next target for a reversal or consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions at key Fibonacci retracement levels, such as 61.8% (2,100,000), when RSI shows signs of divergence and a bullish candlestick pattern is confirmed. Stop-loss placements could be set below the prior swing low (1,905,000), while take-profit targets could be set at 78.6% (2,270,000) and beyond. This approach would capitalize on potential short-term reversals after oversold conditions and strong volume confirmation at key levels.