Market Overview for Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) – 2025-10-09

• • •
• BTCMXN declined 6.1% over 24 hours, closing near session low amid bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded during afternoon ET, with price testing key support near 2240000.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish divergence, suggesting exhaustion in short-term selling.
• Turnover surged during midday ETH dip, but volume remained subdued in late ET recovery.
• Bollinger Bands widened early, with price closing near lower band, indicating oversold potential.

24-Hour Price Action and Volume

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-09, Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) opened at 2,252,275 MXN and closed at 2,253,702 MXN. The pair hit a high of 2,267,907 MXN and a low of 2,225,107 MXN over the past 24 hours. Total traded volume was 0.589 BTC, translating into a notional turnover of ~1,334,634,738 MXN, with the bulk of activity concentrated in the 15:00–17:00 ET timeframe.

Price exhibited a distinct bearish bias, with a broad consolidation from 2,275,000 MXN down to 2,235,000 MXN. The session low at 2,225,107 MXN marked a significant drop from intraday resistance at 2,260,000 MXN.

Structure and Key Levels

The 24-hour OHLCV data revealed multiple bearish candlestick patterns, including a hanging man at 2,235,716 MXN and a bearish engulfing pattern at 2,267,907 MXN. These formations suggest a possible exhaustion of bullish momentum.

Key support levels include 2,240,000 MXN and 2,225,000 MXN, both of which have acted as strong barriers in the 15-minute timeframe. Resistance remains near 2,260,000 MXN and 2,275,000 MXN. A break below 2,225,000 MXN could trigger further bearish extension toward 2,200,000 MXN.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, BTCMXN closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, confirming a short-term bearish bias. The 50-period line sits near 2,255,000 MXN, with the 100-period and 200-period lines at 2,262,000 MXN and 2,270,000 MXN respectively.

The MACD histogram remained negative for much of the session, with a bearish crossover confirming downward momentum. RSI dropped to 28 at the 2225107 MXN low, indicating oversold conditions, though divergence with price suggests caution in assuming a rebound is imminent.

Volatility and Fibonacci Levels

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the early ET dip, with price closing near the lower band. This expansion indicates increased volatility and heightened risk of a reversal.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the recent 15-minute swing (2,275,000 MXN high to 2,225,107 MXN low) show BTCMXN currently at 38.2% retracement near 2,253,700 MXN. A failure to hold this level could extend the correction toward the 61.8% zone at 2,243,700 MXN.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on identifying key Fibonacci and Bollinger Band divergence points to enter short positions during bearish momentum surges. Using 15-minute candles, one could target entry near the 38.2% Fibonacci level with a stop above the 50-period moving average. A trailing stop below the 61.8% level may secure gains during an extended bearish move. Given the RSI's oversold condition, a bearish breakout strategy may face higher success probability in the next 48 hours, assuming the market lacks bullish catalysts.

Outlook and Risk

With bearish momentum intact and key support levels in focus, BTCMXN faces a high probability of testing 2,225,000 MXN in the next 24 hours. Investors should monitor volume and RSI divergence closely, as a breakdown of these levels may indicate further downward pressure. However, oversold conditions and a potential short-covering rally could offer a countertrend bounce. As always, market liquidity and external macroeconomic factors pose risks to technical setups.