Market Overview for Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) on 2025-10-06

• Price surged to a 24-hour high of 2,299,000 MXN before consolidating near 2,294,000 MXN.
• Volatility expanded through late ET hours, with key resistance near 2,299,000 MXN and support at 2,285,000 MXN.
• Momentum remained strong on the 15-minute chart, with RSI near overbought levels late in the session.
• Volume surged in the final 6 hours, signaling increased participation and conviction in upward movement.

Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) opened at 2,258,430 MXN on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET and closed at 2,294,386 MXN by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-06. The 24-hour high reached 2,299,000 MXN, and the low hit 2,253,842 MXN. Total volume across the 24-hour period was approximately 0.63 BTC, with a notional turnover of around 144,722,734 MXN. Price action exhibited a strong bullish bias, particularly in the 72 hours leading up to the 12:00 ET close.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a key resistance level at 2,299,000 MXN, where the 15-minute chart saw a bearish rejection in the final candle. Below, 2,285,000 MXN acted as a psychological support level, with several bullish engulfing and hammer patterns appearing in the 19:00–20:30 ET window. A notable bearish divergence emerged between price and RSI near 23:00 ET, followed by a bullish engulfing pattern that signaled renewed buying interest. The formation of a bullish flag between 23:00 ET and 00:30 ET further reinforced the likelihood of a test of the 2,299,000 MXN level.

Moving Averages and MACD

The 15-minute chart saw price above both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, with the 20-period line rising at a steeper angle than the 50-period line, indicating accelerating momentum. The MACD line crossed above the signal line near 22:00 ET, confirming bullish momentum. On the daily chart, BTCMXN remained above the 50 and 100-period MAs, but approached the 200-period MA from below, suggesting a potential retest of this key line in the next 24 hours.

RSI and Bollinger Bands

RSI climbed to overbought territory (70+ level) by 03:30 ET, suggesting short-term exhaustion, though price continued to climb. Bollinger Bands expanded in the 20:00–03:00 ET window, with price trading near the upper band from 00:30 to 04:30 ET. This indicated heightened volatility and bullish pressure. A mild contraction in band width followed in the mid-ET hours, signaling a potential pause in directional movement before the final surge toward 2,299,000 MXN.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged from 02:00 to 06:00 ET, with a peak of 0.019931 BTC in the 19:15 ET candle, followed by a smaller but consistent increase in the early morning hours. Notional turnover increased in tandem, with the largest spike at 22:30 ET (around 20,636,307 MXN), coinciding with a sharp move higher. However, after reaching the 2,299,000 MXN level, volume dropped off, suggesting a potential pause in the move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the recent low at 2,253,842 MXN and high at 2,299,000 MXN, key Fibonacci levels were identified at 2,274,533 MXN (38.2%), 2,282,181 MXN (50%), and 2,289,829 MXN (61.8%). Price tested the 50% and 61.8% levels before surging to the 2,299,000 MXN high. The 61.8% level appears to have acted as a psychological support-turned-resistance in the final hours, suggesting a potential retracement toward the 2,282,181 MXN level if the current rally stalls.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong upward momentum, a backtest strategy could be constructed using a 15-minute RSI crossover and moving average (20-period) cross for entries. Specifically, a long signal could be triggered when RSI crosses above 50 and the price closes above the 20-period MA on the 15-minute chart. Stops could be placed below the most recent support level (2,285,000 MXN), with a target at 2,299,000 MXN or the next Fibonacci extension level. The recent price action suggests this strategy may have yielded a positive expectancy over the past 24 hours, particularly between 00:00 and 03:30 ET, when both RSI and MA signals aligned with the bullish trend.