Market Overview for Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) – 2025-10-05

• Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) traded in a volatile 24-hour window, forming key support and resistance levels with a late surge into new highs.
• A bullish reversal pattern emerged after a sharp correction, supported by increased volume and a break above the 2260,000 MXN psychological level.
• RSI overbought conditions and diverging price/volume patterns suggest caution, though bullish momentum remains intact.
• Bollinger Bands widened sharply, indicating heightened volatility and a potential continuation or consolidation phase.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 2273,000 MXN and 2259,000 MXN appear critical for short-term direction.

Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) opened at 2,245,862 MXN at 12:00 ET–1 on October 4, 2025, and reached a high of 2,315,743 MXN before closing at 2,270,101 MXN at 12:00 ET on October 5. Total traded volume for the 24-hour period was approximately 0.094846 BTC, with a notional turnover of around 21,562,094 MXN. The pair experienced a sharp rally in the early hours of October 5, with a notable pullback around 02:30 ET–1, followed by a strong bullish reversal.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure for BTCMXN displayed a strong bearish impulse in the early morning hours of October 4, followed by a sharp bullish reversal in the late afternoon. A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 19:15 ET–1 as price gapped higher from 2,242,447 MXN to 2,246,171 MXN. This pattern was confirmed by a strong close and increasing volume. Additionally, a long lower shadow and a short upper shadow in the following candle indicated a possible bottoming process. Key support levels were identified around 2,242,447 MXN and 2,242,973 MXN, with resistance at 2,260,000 MXN and 2,273,454 MXN.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (MAs) showed a bullish crossover in the early hours of October 5, confirming the bullish reversal. The 20 MA accelerated above the 50 MA as the price surged past 2,260,000 MXN. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed above the 100-period MA, indicating a longer-term bullish trend. The 200-period MA, however, remained below the 50 and 100-period MAs, suggesting a potential consolidation phase ahead.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line at approximately 00:00 ET on October 5, signaling a bullish momentum shift. The MACD histogram expanded during the rally, confirming the strength of the upward move. Meanwhile, the RSI reached overbought territory (above 70) at 05:00 ET–1, with a slight divergence as volume declined while price continued to rise. This divergence raises caution about a potential pullback or consolidation before further gains.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the rally from 2,242,447 MXN to 2,315,743 MXN, indicating a surge in volatility. Price closed just above the upper band at 2,270,101 MXN, suggesting continued bullish pressure. The contraction of the bands earlier in the session around 22:00 ET–1 signaled a period of consolidation before the breakout. The current wide band environment suggests that volatility is likely to persist, with potential for further price extremes if the trend continues.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the late afternoon and early evening of October 4, reaching a peak of 0.015171 BTC at 23:45 ET–1, followed by a sharp increase to 0.039617 BTC at 02:30 ET on October 5. This volume confirmed the bullish reversal and breakout above key resistance. Notional turnover also surged in line with price gains, indicating strong participation. The divergence in the final hours—where price rose but volume declined—suggests a potential pause in the bullish momentum, with a watch for a potential correction or consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 2,242,447 MXN to 2,315,743 MXN, the 61.8% retracement level sits at 2,273,454 MXN, and the 38.2% level is at 2,259,557 MXN. The current close at 2,270,101 MXN is very close to the 61.8% level, suggesting that a break above this could trigger a test of the 2,282,309 MXN level (from the earlier swing). On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the recent larger move is at 2,260,000 MXN, a key psychological level that may act as a pivot point.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves entering a long position upon a bullish engulfing pattern forming after a pullback to a key Fibonacci retracement level (e.g., 38.2% or 50%) and confirming with a close above the 20-period MA on the 15-minute chart. A stop-loss is placed below the low of the engulfing pattern, and a target is set at the next Fibonacci level or the upper Bollinger Band. This strategy aligns well with the observed price action, particularly around the 19:15 ET–1 and 02:30 ET–1 swings. Given the current positioning near the 61.8% retracement level and above the 20 MA, a continuation of this setup could support further bullish movement.