Market Overview for Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) - 2025-10-04

• BTCMXN traded in a volatile range, with a 15-minute high of 2,278,947 and a low of 2,238,246.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 227,500, followed by a consolidation phase.
• RSI showed overbought conditions early, then entered oversold territory, suggesting a possible reversal.
• Volatility expanded near the session high, but volume failed to confirm the breakout.
• Key support at 224,000–225,000 and resistance at 226,000–227,000 defined the trading range.

Opening and Range Summary

Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) opened at 2,245,871 at 12:00 ET−1 and closed at 2,248,476 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high reached 2,278,947, while the low hit 2,238,246. Total volume for the period was 1.020 BTC, with notional turnover amounting to approximately 229,272,819 MXN. The session featured heightened volatility and multiple directional shifts, especially in the early hours.

Structure and Key Levels

The price action displayed multiple key turning points, with a notable bearish engulfing pattern forming at 227,500 as the price reversed from a local high. A double-bottom structure emerged near 224,000–225,000, which acted as a strong support zone. Resistance levels at 226,000–227,000 saw multiple rejections, especially from 226,000, where the price failed to close above on several occasions. A doji at 225,500 and 225,900 indicated indecision and potential reversal points.

Indicators and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained in a bullish alignment for much of the session, but the trend reversed as the 50-period line crossed below the 20-period line in the latter half. The MACD showed a narrowing histogram and crossed into negative territory, signaling a slowdown in bullish momentum. RSI reached overbought levels above 70 in the early hours and then fell below 30 by the session’s end, suggesting a potential short-term rebound from oversold territory.

Volatility and Volume Analysis

Bollinger Bands showed a significant expansion during the session high at 227,8947, indicating a surge in volatility. However, the price quickly retracted to the lower band, and volume failed to confirm the breakout, suggesting the move lacked conviction. Volume spiked near the high at 227,8947 with 0.040406 BTC traded, but this did not translate into a sustained move. The divergence between price and volume was most evident during the consolidation phase between 224,000–225,000.

Key Retracements and Projected Levels

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the 223,8246–227,8947 swing showed that the price tested 61.8% (226,000) and 38.2% (225,500) levels multiple times. The 50% retracement at 225,859 marked a key inflection point, with the price bouncing off this level twice. Projected support levels from daily swings suggest that a break below 224,000 could target the 223,000 level, while resistance above 226,000 could see a test of 227,000.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions on a bullish breakout above the 226,000 resistance level, confirmed by a close above this line and a surge in volume. A stop-loss could be placed just below the 224,000–225,000 support cluster, with a target at the 227,000–228,000 range based on Fibonacci and Bollinger Band projections. This approach would aim to capture upward momentum from a confirmed breakout and a pullback from overbought conditions. Short-term traders may consider a countertrend entry during a pullback to the 225,000–225,500 range, especially if RSI and MACD indicate a potential reversal from oversold territory.