Market Overview for Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) on 2025-09-21

• Price action showed a bearish bias with a 1.48% drop in BTCMXN over 24 hours.
• Key support tested at ~2135k, with RSI near 35 signaling potential oversold conditions.
• Volatility expanded during the session, with Bollinger Bands widening significantly.
• Volume distribution skewed bearish in the second half of the day, confirming downward pressure.
• A bullish 61.8% Fib retracement at ~2139k failed to hold, indicating stronger bearish momentum.

24-Hour Summary and Price Action

The 24-hour session for Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) opened at 2141231.0 at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at 2136459.0 at 12:00 ET. Price reached a high of 2143342.0 and a low of 2131301.0. Total volume for the period was 0.4696 BTC, while notional turnover amounted to approximately 100.10 million MXN. The price action reflected a bearish sentiment with multiple tests of support at ~2135k and a failed attempt to reclaim the 2139k level.

Structure & Formations

Price tested multiple key support levels, most notably at ~2135k, where a bullish engulfing pattern initially formed, but failed to hold. A doji appeared at ~2136k in the early hours of 2025-09-21, signaling potential indecision. The 15-minute chart revealed a bearish structure as price repeatedly failed to close above prior highs, particularly after the 19:00 ET dip. Resistance appears to congregate near the 2140k–2142k zone, while support is likely to remain focused at 2135k–2136k for the near term.

Moving Averages and Momentum Indicators

On the 15-minute chart, price remained below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish tone. Daily averages (50, 100, and 200) suggest that BTCMXN is in a consolidation phase, with the 200-day MA serving as a critical long-term reference. The MACD crossed into negative territory mid-session and remained bearish, with the histogram showing increasing bearish momentum. RSI dropped to 35 by session end, indicating possible oversold conditions, though a reversal is unlikely without a strong bullish catalyst.

Volatility and Fibonacci Retracements

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the session, reflecting heightened volatility. Price hovered near the lower band for much of the session, especially during the 19:00–04:00 ET hours, indicating a high degree of bearish pressure. A key Fibonacci retracement at 61.8% (~2139k) failed to hold, reinforcing the bearish narrative. The 38.2% retracement (~2136k) could act as a potential support pivot in the short term.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current setup, a potential backtesting strategy might focus on entering short positions on a confirmed break below 2135k with a stop above the recent high of 2139k. A trailing stop could be placed just below key intraday support levels identified in the 15-minute chart. This strategy leverages the bearish momentum and volatility structure while ensuring risk is limited in case of a countertrend rebound. The 61.8% Fib level and RSI readings near 35 could also act as signals for tightening stops or closing positions after a significant pullback. The focus remains on momentum and volatility, with the backtest likely to prioritize entries after a confirmed rejection of the lower band on the Bollinger Bands.