Market Overview for Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) – 2025-09-14

• Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) traded in a volatile range, breaking above key resistance in the late hours of 24 hours.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed near the 2140000 level, signaling potential short-term momentum reversal.
• Volatility increased sharply after 20:00 ET, with a peak-to-trough range exceeding 120,000 MXN.
• RSI crossed into overbought territory, while volume surged during the break of the 2143000 level.
• Price closed slightly below the 2145000 level, suggesting caution ahead of the next 24-hour window.

Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) opened at 2137306 MXN (12:00 ET − 1) and reached a high of 2149626 MXN before closing at 2140987 MXN (12:00 ET). Total volume traded was 0.460291 BTC, with a notional turnover of 98,260,313.00 MXN over 24 hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a key bullish engulfing pattern around 2140000 MXN, occurring during strong volume expansion. A doji candle formed near 2144617 MXN, indicating indecision at the upper end of the trading range. A bearish reversal pattern emerged near 2146451 MXN, followed by a pullback toward 2142002 MXN. The price appears to have found immediate support around 2140987 MXN in the final candle, which may be a short-term floor.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average is above the 50-period line, indicating short-term bullish momentum. The 50-period line is flattening, suggesting a potential slowdown in upward bias. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) are not included in the dataset, but the 2145000 MXN level may represent a psychological resistance tied to the 200-day historical context.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line in the late hours, confirming a short-term bullish momentum shift. RSI reached a peak of 72, entering overbought territory, suggesting potential for a correction or consolidation. Divergence between price and RSI is not evident in the most recent hourly data, implying the current rally may still have legs.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly in the 15-minute chart, with the Bollinger Bands expanding after 20:00 ET. Price closed near the upper band at 2149626 MXN, indicating strong bullish pressure. However, the subsequent pullback to 2140987 MXN suggests that the upper band may now act as resistance in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked above average levels during the bullish breakout above 2143000 MXN, with a 15-minute candle at 2146451 MXN showing significant participation. Notional turnover was highest during the 2146451 MXN candle and the subsequent pullback, indicating strong market interest. A divergence in volume occurred during the bearish reversal at 2146451 MXN, signaling caution for further longs.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing low at 2128000 MXN and swing high at 2149626 MXN, the 61.8% level (~2141600 MXN) aligns with the final close of the 24-hour window. The 38.2% level (~2138800 MXN) has been a minor support/resistance level for much of the session. These levels may dictate near-term directional bias in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern confirmation, followed by a stop-loss placed below the 2140000 MXN level. A take-profit target could be set near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (~2141600 MXN). If volume confirms the bullish breakout, the trade could aim for the 2149626 MXN upper band as a target, but a trailing stop should be considered after the price clears 2145000 MXN. This aligns with the identified RSI overbought condition and MACD bullish crossover, offering a probabilistic edge in the short term.