Market Overview for Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH): Volatility and Bearish Bias

• Bitcoin/Hryvnia opened at 4,681,990 and closed at 4,665,465 UAH after a volatile 24-hour session with a high of 4,713,345.
• Momentum slowed in the final hours, with the RSI signaling oversold conditions near 30 and MACD trending lower.
• Volatility remained high through Bollinger Band expansions, but notional turnover dipped after 20:00 ET.
• A strong bearish engulfing pattern formed after 19:30 ET, suggesting potential for further downside support testing.
• Fibonacci 61.8% level at ~4,676,000 appears to act as a near-term support, with key resistance at ~4,703,000.

The Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) pair opened at 4,681,990 UAH on 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET and closed at 4,665,465 UAH at 12:00 ET the next day. The session saw a high of 4,713,345 UAH and a low of 4,665,465 UAH. Total volume traded over 24 hours amounted to 0.04943 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately 449,180,186 UAH.

The 15-minute OHLCV data revealed a strong bearish trend in the late hours of the session, particularly after a large bearish engulfing pattern formed around 19:30 ET. This pattern followed a sharp rebound from the 4,670,668 UAH level, but was quickly reversed lower. Price action has since remained below the 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, indicating a potential continuation of the downward bias.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels emerged at the 4,670,668 UAH level and later at 4,666,476 UAH, where price found temporary respite. Resistance levels are visible around 4,703,199 UAH and 4,713,345 UAH. The formation of a bearish engulfing candle at 19:30 ET and a subsequent doji at 21:30 ET signaled a possible exhaustion of bullish momentum. A notable 15-minute pullback from 19:30 to 20:45 ET failed to regain strength, suggesting bearish continuation.

Moving Averages

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained below the price throughout the session, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily timeframe, price is below the 50-, 100-, and 200-period MAs, aligning with a medium-term downtrend. The 50-period MA sits at ~4,690,000 UAH and could act as a dynamic resistance.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative and remained below the signal line after 19:30 ET, with the histogram showing decreasing bullish momentum. RSI dipped below 30 by 09:00 ET on 2025-09-27, indicating overbought conditions have dissipated and bearish pressure has intensified. The RSI remains in oversold territory, suggesting the potential for a short-term bounce, though the bearish trend appears intact.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the early part of the session, with price moving from the upper band to the lower band within a 15-minute window. By late morning, volatility had contracted, signaling a period of consolidation. Price has remained near the lower band for most of the session, suggesting a bearish bias with a potential for a rebound towards the middle band (~4,685,000 UAH).

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the bearish engulfing pattern at 19:30 ET, with 0.00205 BTC traded, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. However, after 20:00 ET, volume dropped significantly, with minimal trading activity until the final hours. Notional turnover peaked at ~22.5 million UAH during the bearish breakdown but declined steadily afterward. A divergence between price and turnover during the late hours suggests a weakening bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the key 15-minute swing from 4,713,345 UAH to 4,665,465 UAH, the 61.8% retracement level is at ~4,676,000 UAH, which price appears to be approaching. The 38.2% level at ~4,691,000 UAH and the 50% level at ~4,689,000 UAH have already been tested and rejected. A break below the 61.8% level could trigger further downward pressure toward the 4,665,000 UAH level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The bearish engulfing pattern and subsequent consolidation suggest a short-term strategy based on Fibonacci retracement levels and volume confirmation could be viable. A potential backtest could involve entering a short position on a break of the 61.8% retracement level (~4,676,000 UAH) with a stop loss above the 50% level (~4,689,000 UAH) and a target at the 4,665,000 UAH level. Volume spikes during the bearish move should be used to confirm the strength of the breakdown.