Market Overview: Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) – October 31, 2025

• Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) opened at 4697557.0 UAH and traded lower into a 24-hour low of 4653187.0 UAH before recovering to 4810088.0 UAH.
• A sharp 15-minute bearish drop on 2025-10-30 19:00 ET led to a 2.1% intraday decline, showing significant short-term bearish pressure.
• Volume spiked on key reversal moves, with a 0.01564 BTC trade at 4754358.0 UAH indicating possible accumulation or distribution.
• RSI and MACD suggest overbought conditions at the peak and oversold territory during the decline, hinting at potential consolidation.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the 19:00–02:45 ET window, suggesting increased interest and market uncertainty.

Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) opened at 4697557.0 UAH on October 30, 2025, at 12:00 ET–1 and traded to a 24-hour low of 4653187.0 UAH and a high of 4810088.0 UAH before closing at 4775047.0 UAH as of 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour trading volume amounted to 0.1534 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately 73,015,318.0 UAH. Price action showed a volatile session, marked by sharp intraday corrections and key reversal signals.

Structure & Formations

The price formation showed a strong bearish impulse starting around 19:00 ET, with a large bearish candle (4693679.0–4673389.0 UAH) that appeared to signal a possible short-term top. A subsequent bullish reversal began at 20:00 ET, characterized by a strong green candle (4659911.0–4676067.0 UAH). Around 02:45 ET on October 31, a large red candle (4792718.0–4754358.0 UAH) suggested bearish control, but buyers regained ground by the close, ending the session in positive territory. Key support levels appear to be forming around 4670000–4680000 UAH, while resistance is in the 4770000–4780000 UAH range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA late in the session (around 04:00 ET), signaling a potential short-term bullish bias. The 50-period MA for the daily chart was trading near 4740000 UAH, below the closing price of 4775047.0 UAH, suggesting BTCUAH closed above its mid-term support. A 200-period MA sits at approximately 4720000 UAH, indicating that the price is holding above key long-term support.

MACD & RSI

MACD lines showed a bearish divergence during the 19:00–02:00 ET session, with a strong negative crossover around 00:00 ET. However, by the end of the session, the MACD turned positive, reflecting the final bullish rebound. The RSI dropped to oversold territory at 28 during the 20:00–03:00 ET window and rose back into neutral territory, ending the day at 54. This suggests the price may consolidate in the near term after a volatile session.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked sharply during the 19:00–02:45 ET window, pushing price action to the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a period of high uncertainty. As the session ended, price settled near the middle band, suggesting a potential retracement or consolidation phase. The bands remain relatively wide, reflecting the high volatility observed during the 24-hour period.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at key reversal points, including a 0.01564 BTC trade at 4754358.0 UAH and a 0.00187 BTC trade at 4770005.0 UAH. These suggest potential accumulation or distribution at critical price levels. However, notional turnover remained relatively stable across most of the session, with the exception of the 02:45 ET candle, which had a large volume spike. Price and turnover appeared to align, with no significant divergence observed.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 4670000–4680000 UAH range aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous bullish move. The 4750000–4760000 UAH level represents the 61.8% retracement, suggesting potential support for further buying. On the daily chart, the 4700000–4720000 UAH level marks a 38.2% retracement of the recent bearish swing and could serve as a key pivot point.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the performance of the Bullish-Engulfing candlestick pattern on BTCUAH, one viable path is to use the widely-supported BTCUSD symbol for pattern detection and then convert BTCUSD close prices into UAH using the USD/UAH exchange rate to estimate local P&L. Given the volatility and sharp reversal patterns observed in this 24-hour window, testing the performance of this pattern on BTCUAH would provide valuable insights into its reliability in the context of the Hryvnia pairing.