Market Overview for Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) – November 6, 2025

• BTCUAH tested a key support level at 4,550,000 UAH before rebounding.
• A bearish divergence in RSI and volume suggests potential downward momentum.
• Price remains within a widening Bollinger Band, indicating rising volatility.

The Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) pair opened at 4,582,056 UAH at 11:45 ET and reached a high of 4,601,629 UAH before settling at 4,522,412 UAH at 12:00 ET. The total volume transacted was 0.123 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately 55.4 million UAH over the 24-hour window.

The price action displayed a notable bearish trend as it broke through a key psychological level and failed to retest earlier highs. This was followed by a sharp but limited rebound that failed to break back above the 4,550,000 UAH level. A bearish engulfing pattern formed near the 4,550,000 UAH level, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

The 15-minute moving averages (20-period and 50-period) are trending lower, with the price currently below both lines, signaling bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average has crossed below the 200-period line, indicating a potential bear market setup.

MACD remains in negative territory with declining momentum, while RSI shows a bearish divergence, suggesting that further downside could be in play. The 15-minute RSI is currently near the 30 level, hinting at oversold conditions, but without a clear reversal signal, this may not lead to a bounce.

Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly over the past 24 hours, reflecting rising volatility. The price is currently at the lower band, which could either serve as a support level or a continuation of the bearish trend if broken.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing high to the swing low suggest that the 61.8% level is at approximately 4,523,000 UAH, closely aligning with the current price, which could either act as a temporary support or trigger further selling pressure if tested.

A notable volume spike occurred during the early hours of the morning (ET) as the price dropped below the 4,550,000 UAH level. This was followed by a significant volume drop during the rebound, suggesting a lack of conviction in the upward move. The volume profile indicates a potential exhaustion phase in the bullish side, with buyers struggling to reestablish control above key levels.

Backtest Hypothesis
A backtesting strategy based on the Bearish-Engulfing pattern and key support-level breaches can offer valuable insights into BTCUAH’s behavior under bearish pressure. Given the current price trajectory and the observed divergence in RSI and MACD, applying this pattern to historical data—paired with Fibonacci retracement levels and Bollinger Band volatility signals—could refine trade entries and exits. For best results, the strategy should be tested using the close price and include typical risk controls such as a 5% stop-loss, a 10% take-profit, and a 3-day maximum holding period. Matching the correct ticker symbol for your data source (e.g., BTCUAH on Binance) will ensure accurate event identification and improve the robustness of the backtest.