Market Overview: Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) Daily Summary – October 10, 2025

• Price surged to 5,170,495 UAH before retracting to 5,111,107 UAH in 24 hours.
• High volatility observed with a range of ~59,000 UAH in a single session.
• Volume spiked at 0.6–0.7 BTC during early morning dips.
• RSI showed overbought conditions toward midday, followed by sharp correction.
• Bollinger Bands expanded, indicating heightened uncertainty in market direction.

The 24-hour period for Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) opened at 5,103,731 UAH on October 9 at 16:00 ET and closed at 5,060,120 UAH on October 10 at 16:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 5,170,495 UAH and a low of 5,045,110 UAH. Total trading volume was approximately 4.7 BTC, while notional turnover stood at around 23.7 billion UAH.

The chart displayed multiple key support and resistance levels, including a critical resistance near 5,155,000 UAH and a support level at 5,111,107 UAH. A large bearish engulfing candle formed after the midday high, indicating strong selling pressure. Doji appeared near 5,133,297 UAH and 5,125,890 UAH, suggesting indecision among traders. The price also tested the 5,155,000 UAH level twice without confirmation, hinting at potential consolidation.

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed multiple times, reflecting choppy conditions, while the 50-period daily moving average supported the idea of a long-term bullish trend. MACD showed bearish divergence during the afternoon sell-off, with a negative histogram expanding after 2:00 AM ET. The RSI reached overbought territory at 80 during the morning peak but then dropped below 40, confirming a potential exhaustion in upward momentum.

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the session, particularly after 3:00 AM ET, as price volatility increased. Price action briefly touched the upper band before collapsing toward the lower band, suggesting a possible exhaustion of the current trend. The middle band at 5,134,000 UAH acted as a dynamic reference point, with the price oscillating around it in a tight range during the latter half of the session. Volume and turnover aligned with price movements, with no major divergence observed.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 5,170,495 UAH high to the 5,045,110 UAH low identified key levels of interest. The 61.8% retracement at 5,116,000 UAH and the 38.2% at 5,142,000 UAH were both tested during the session. The 5,111,107 UAH level aligned closely with the 50-period moving average and served as a potential short-term support.

The market may continue to test the 5,155,000 UAH resistance in the next 24 hours if buyers can reclaim the 5,134,000 UAH Bollinger middle band. A break above that level may indicate a resumption of the bullish trend, while a failure to hold above 5,111,107 UAH could lead to a deeper correction. Traders should remain cautious given the high volatility and divergent momentum signals.

Backtest Hypothesis
A backtesting strategy based on MACD and RSI divergence on the 15-minute chart could offer a high-probability entry for short-term trades. When RSI exceeds 80 (overbought) and MACD shows a bearish crossover or negative divergence, a sell entry may be initiated with a stop-loss just above the recent swing high. Conversely, when RSI falls below 20 (oversold) and MACD signals a bullish crossover or divergence, a long trade may be considered. Given today’s pattern, this strategy would have triggered a sell signal near the 5,170,000 UAH high, aligning with the observed price collapse.