Market Overview: Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) Daily Analysis for 2025-09-17

• Price rose from 4,921,447 to 5,010,200 UAH before retracing to close at 4,973,292.
• Volatility expanded with a 6.9% range, showing intraday momentum but lack of follow-through.
• RSI reached 69, indicating overbought territory, while volume declined after the 5,000,000 UAH peak.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 5,010,200 UAH, signaling potential short-term reversal.
• Bollinger Bands showed moderate expansion, with price testing the upper band at 5,003,361 UAH.

Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) opened at 4,921,447 UAH on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET, surged to 5,010,200 UAH, and closed at 4,973,292 UAH on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour trading period saw a total volume of 0.145 BTC and a notional turnover of approximately 72.95 million UAH.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour price action showed a strong bullish thrust from 4,921,447 UAH to 5,010,200 UAH, followed by a consolidation and pullback toward the 4,970,000 UAH area. Key support levels emerged at 4,965,603 UAH and 4,950,661 UAH, while resistance formed around 5,000,000 UAH and 5,010,200 UAH. A bearish engulfing pattern at 5,010,200 UAH suggests short-term bearish pressure. A doji formed at 5,003,361 UAH, hinting at indecision among buyers and sellers.

Support & Resistance

- Support: 4,965,603 UAH, 4,950,661 UAH, 4,921,447 UAH
- Resistance: 4,979,225 UAH, 4,988,705 UAH, 5,000,000 UAH, 5,010,200 UAH

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA and 50-period MA crossed upward mid-session, indicating temporary bullish momentum. However, the 50-period MA started to flatten near 5,000,000 UAH, suggesting weakening upward bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at 4,940,000 UAH, and the 200-period MA at 4,900,000 UAH, with price comfortably above both.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained in positive territory, with a bearish divergence forming at the top of the 5,010,200 UAH swing. RSI reached 69 during the peak, entering overbought territory, and later fell to 52 by the close, showing reduced bullish momentum. While the oscillator remains above neutral, its slowdown suggests that further upward moves may require renewed buying interest.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed moderate volatility expansion during the morning surge, with price reaching the upper band at 5,003,361 UAH. As price pulled back, it settled near the middle band, suggesting potential for consolidation ahead. A test of the lower band is unlikely without additional bearish triggers, such as a break below 4,965,603 UAH.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 0.0062 BTC at the 5,010,200 UAH high, confirming the move initially, but then declined significantly during the pullback. This suggests that the bullish move was driven by limited buying pressure, and bears took control afterward. The total notional turnover of 72.95 million UAH was concentrated in the early and mid-session hours, with the final hours showing minimal trading activity, indicating reduced interest or uncertainty.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the recent swing from 4,921,447 UAH to 5,010,200 UAH saw price retrace to the 61.8% level (4,965,603 UAH) and the 38.2% level (4,988,705 UAH), both of which acted as temporary supports. A break below 4,965,603 UAH would target the 4,950,661 UAH level (78.6% retracement).

Backtest Hypothesis

The 15-minute breakout and pullback pattern observed near the 5,010,200 UAH level aligns with a common backtesting strategy involving entry on the close of the engulfing candle and stop-loss placement below the doji low at 5,000,000 UAH. This approach assumes that the bearish momentum is sufficient to drive price below the 4,965,603 UAH support level, with a target at 4,950,661 UAH. While the strategy shows short-term potential, it is sensitive to late-breaking news or macroeconomic shifts.

Looking ahead, BTCUAH appears to be consolidating after a short-lived bullish phase. The market may test the 4,965,603 UAH level in the coming 24 hours, with a possible retest of the 5,000,000 UAH resistance if buyers regain control. Traders should remain cautious of divergences in the MACD and volume patterns, as these could signal a broader reversal. Volatility may ease unless new catalysts emerge.