Market Overview for Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH)

Summary
• BTCUAH opened at 4,553,543 UAH and reached a high of 4,680,142 UAH.
• A sharp rally in the early hours saw the pair test 61.8% Fibonacci levels.
• Volume remains low, with notable spikes during price surges.
• RSI and MACD suggest potential overbought conditions and divergences.
• Bollinger Bands show expanding volatility, especially after 23:30 UTC.

Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) opened at 4,553,543 UAH (12:00 ET – 1) and closed at 4,673,389 UAH by 12:00 ET today, with a high of 4,680,142 UAH and a low of 4,553,478 UAH. Total volume for the 24-hour window was approximately 0.067 BTC, and total notional turnover reached 31.4 million UAH. Price action showed a strong upward bias after 19:00 UTC, with a rapid move toward 4.68 million UAH before consolidating near that level.

Structure & Formations

The price formed several key patterns, including a bullish engulfing pattern at 19:30 UTC, where a large bullish candle opened near the prior close and closed near the high. This was followed by a strong bullish continuation at 22:00 UTC. A key support level appears to have held around 4.59 million UAH, preventing a deeper pullback. Notable resistance was tested at 4.68 million UAH before consolidation. These formations suggest aggressive buying pressure after a brief pause in price action.

Support and Resistance Levels

Immediate support appears to be at 4.666 million UAH, while resistance lies at 4.69 million UAH. The 4.59 million UAH level continues to act as a psychological floor, with price showing reluctance to break below this in the last 48 hours.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bullish, with the 20-period above the 50-period. The pair remains above both lines, suggesting continued strength in the short-term trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is approaching the 100-period MA from above, but no cross has occurred yet. This suggests a potential shift in momentum may be near.

MACD has shown a strong bullish divergence, with the histogram expanding during key buying waves, especially after 19:00 UTC. RSI reached overbought territory (70+), indicating possible exhaustion in the short-term rally. A pullback to 65–68 is likely before further upside can be confirmed.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded dramatically after the 19:30 UTC bullish engulfing pattern, pushing the price toward the upper band. The bands widened significantly post-22:00 UTC, coinciding with the 4.68 million UAH high. Price has since retracted but remains above the midline of the bands, indicating continued bullish momentum with a risk of consolidation.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the 19:30 UTC and 22:00 UTC sessions, confirming strong buying interest. However, turnover did not match the volume surge, indicating that larger trades may have moved the market without a corresponding increase in liquidity. Divergence between volume and turnover could hint at wash trading or liquidity thinning in the pair. Caution is warranted during the next rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent 4.68 million UAH high sits near the 61.8% retracement level of the prior 15-minute decline. A continuation above this level would open the door for a test of 4.7 million UAH. On the daily chart, the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels align with key moving averages and appear to be strong zones to watch.

Backtest Hypothesis

To address the data-access issue for Bullish Engulfing pattern detection, the best path is to either switch to a more widely supported pair (e.g., BTC-USD) or use locally processed BTCUAH OHLC data for pattern detection. Once the dataset is accessible, the strategy will generate buy signals on each confirmed Bullish Engulfing candle and exit on the first Bearish reversal pattern (e.g., Bearish Engulfing or a bearish divergence in RSI/MACD). This approach can then be backtested across the period of 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-10 for performance evaluation. The use of locally processed data ensures accuracy and avoids dependency on external APIs.

Looking ahead, BTCUAH appears to be in a strong short-term bullish phase, supported by key patterns and overbought momentum. However, the risk of a consolidation phase or pullback into the 4.66 million UAH level is high if no follow-through buying occurs above 4.68 million UAH. Investors should watch for a break above 4.69 million UAH to confirm the continuation of the upward trend.