Market Overview for Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH)

• Price declined from 4,799,948.0 to 4,768,035.0 over 24 hours.
• A sharp intraday selloff emerged after 19:45 ET, breaking key support.
• Volume increased modestly, but turnover did not confirm price declines.
• RSI and MACD both signaled bearish momentum and oversold conditions.
• BTCUAH traded within a contracting Bollinger Band channel most of the session.

Opening Narrative

The Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) pair opened at 4,789,535.0 on 2025-10-31 at 12:00 ET and closed at 4,768,035.0 the following day at the same time. The session’s high was 4,809,657.0, while the low hit 4,741,365.0, reflecting volatile intraday swings. Total trading volume amounted to 0.0586 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately 279,684,022.60 UAH.

Structure & Formations

BTCUAH’s price trajectory showed a key breakdown after a bearish reversal pattern was observed around 19:45 ET. A large bearish candle following consolidation signaled a potential breakdown from recent support levels near 4,769,166.0. The price continued to trade below this level for much of the session, suggesting a shift in momentum. A doji at 00:15 ET and a bullish engulfing pattern at 02:15 ET on the following day hinted at potential short-term reversals, though these were not followed by sufficient volume to confirm strength.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both bearish and below price, signaling continuation of the short-term downward trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 100-period and 200-period MA, reinforcing a bearish bias across broader timeframes. This “death cross” structure implies further downside risk if the trend persists.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram remained negative throughout most of the session, with bearish divergence between price and momentum. RSI dipped below 30 at 03:45 ET, signaling oversold conditions, but failed to trigger a strong rebound. This suggests a lack of buying interest despite the oversold reading. Both indicators point to continued bearish pressure and a potential continuation of the downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained subdued throughout the session, as evidenced by the narrow Bollinger Band contraction observed from 21:00 to 05:00 ET. Price spent much of this time trading within the lower half of the bands, suggesting a lack of conviction in either direction. However, the breakdown below the lower band at 19:45 ET marked a key bearish signal. The subsequent expansion of the bands after the breakdown indicates a return in volatility following the breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked slightly during the breakdown from 19:45 to 20:00 ET, confirming the bearish move. However, subsequent declines were accompanied by relatively low volume, suggesting a lack of follow-through from sellers. The total notional turnover was 279,684,022.60 UAH, with the largest single 15-minute turnover spike occurring at 02:30 ET during a bullish reversal attempt. The divergence between price action and turnover suggests caution for further downside.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels were drawn from the recent 15-minute swing high at 4,809,657.0 and low at 4,741,365.0. The price found some resistance at the 38.2% level (4,774,697.0) and support at the 61.8% level (4,759,065.0). The breakdown below the 61.8% level suggests the pair may test the 4,741,365.0 level again in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the technical indicators used (Bullish Engulfing pattern, RSI, MACD, and Fibonacci retracement levels), a backtesting strategy could focus on identifying instances where a Bullish Engulfing pattern occurs during periods of oversold RSI and a MACD crossover to the positive side. These conditions may indicate potential reversal setups on BTCUAH. A practical approach would be to use a 1-day holding period to validate the signal, using the close of the signal day as entry and the next day’s close as exit. This method is feasible with current data and provides a robust starting point for testing the strategy without requiring intraday data.