Market Overview: Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) 24-Hour Summary

• Price action showed a sharp 15-minute drop to 4,783,292, rebounding later with consolidation.
• Momentum indicators suggest oversold conditions with potential for short-term recovery.
• Volatility remained elevated, with Bollinger Bands showing expansion from earlier contraction.
• Volume was unevenly distributed, with significant buying pressure late in the session.
• Fibonacci levels suggest potential support around 4,746,427 and resistance at 4,802,840.

At 12:00 ET-1 on 2025-10-12, Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) opened at 4,825,978 and closed at 4,796,937, reaching a high of 4,867,864 and a low of 4,746,427 over the 24-hour period. Total trading volume amounted to 0.636 BTC, with notional turnover of 299,403,323.14 UAH. The session was marked by sharp intraday volatility and a strong late-session rebound.

Structure & Formations

The price structure showed a strong bearish bias in the early part of the session, with a notable 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern forming as BTCUAH fell from 4,799,188 to 4,783,292. Later, price found support at 4,746,427 and began a consolidation phase, forming a small bullish divergence by the close. A doji formed at 05:00 ET as price struggled to close above 4,773,335, suggesting indecision and potential reversal.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages on the 15-minute chart (20/50) showed a crossover into bearish territory during the early part of the session, with price closing below both. By the later hours, the 20-period MA began to turn upward, indicating a possible short-term reversal. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was below the 200-period MA, reflecting a longer-term bearish bias, though price showed a slight upward tilt by the end of the period.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative in the early hours, confirming the bearish momentum, with the signal line crossing below the MACD line. By the close, the MACD had begun to turn positive again, indicating a possible short-term recovery. The RSI moved into oversold territory (below 30) around 20:00 ET and began to show signs of recovery, suggesting potential for a rebound in the near term.

Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction in the morning hours, signaling low volatility, followed by a sharp expansion after 19:00 ET as price broke through the lower band. Price closed near the middle band, suggesting that volatility has stabilized and may be entering a consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was unevenly distributed, with a spike of 0.07984 BTC at 05:00 ET as price dropped sharply to 4,777,335. This was followed by another large volume spike of 0.13255 BTC at 05:15 ET as price bounced to 4,802,840. Notional turnover spiked in tandem with these volume surges, confirming the price action. However, between 12:00 ET-1 and 12:00 ET, volume was relatively muted, suggesting lower liquidity during the early hours of the session.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 15-minute low of 4,746,427 and the subsequent high of 4,867,864, the key retracement levels are 4,765,704 (23.6%), 4,792,199 (38.2%), and 4,818,694 (50%). The price closed near the 38.2% level at 4,796,937, suggesting a potential for further consolidation or a bounce off this level. On the daily chart, retracement levels from the broader range suggest key support at 4,746,427 (61.8%) and resistance at 4,802,840 (50%).

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on a reversal pattern in the context of oversold RSI and a bullish divergence after a strong bearish engulfing pattern. Entering a long position on a close above the 4,796,937 level (current close) with a stop-loss below 4,783,292 and a take-profit target near 4,802,840 (the 50% retracement level) may provide a favorable risk-reward profile. This approach would be best executed with confirmation of the price crossing above the middle Bollinger Band and a positive MACD crossover.