Market Overview: Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) – 24-Hour Summary

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• BTCUAH traded in a narrow range most of the session, with a late-day rally to 4.92M UAH.
• Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern near the 4.90M UAH level, signaling short-term buying interest.
• Volatility remained low, with Bollinger Bands tightening, suggesting a potential breakout in the near term.
• RSI crossed into overbought territory near the session close, indicating caution in near-term momentum.
• Turnover remained subdued, with key volume surges only observed during the late-ET breakouts.

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Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) opened at 4,889,367 UAH at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at 4,925,768 UAH at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 4,947,567 UAH and a low of 4,890,014 UAH over the 24-hour period. Total volume traded was 0.186 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately 92.5 million UAH.

The BTCUAH pair spent much of the session consolidating in a narrow range between 4.90M and 4.92M UAH, with price action showing limited conviction. A small bullish engulfing pattern formed during the 19:30–19:45 ET window as price moved from 4.90M UAH to 4.947M UAH. This pattern, along with the subsequent rally, suggests a shift in short-term sentiment. Key support levels were observed at 4.90M UAH and 4.89M UAH, both of which were tested with limited breakdown attempts.

The 15-minute chart shows price moving below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages early in the session before crossing above them during the late ET breakout. The 50-period moving average currently sits at 4.914M UAH, aligning with a key support-turned-resistance level. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages remain well above the current price, suggesting the broader trend remains neutral to bearish.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 15-minute chart surged above 70 during the final hours of the session, indicating short-term overbought conditions. This suggests a potential pullback to 4.90M–4.91M UAH may be due. Meanwhile, the 15-minute MACD turned positive late in the session but remains below its signal line, suggesting a mixed momentum outlook. Bollinger Bands were in a contraction phase most of the session, only widening during the late ET break. Price closed just above the upper band, hinting at a potential continuation of the upward move.

The Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the most recent 15-minute swing (4.89M UAH to 4.947M UAH) show 38.2% at 4.924M UAH and 61.8% at 4.933M UAH. These levels align closely with the closing price and may act as near-term resistance. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the broader move sits at 4.86M UAH, a level that could become key if the trend reverses.

Volume remained mostly flat throughout the session, with only a few spikes during the late-ET breakout. Notably, the 19:30–19:45 ET candle showed a 0.00483 BTC volume spike during the 4.90M–4.947M UAH move, suggesting accumulation. However, the price action failed to close above the 4.94M UAH level, indicating limited conviction from buyers.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a long position on a bullish engulfing pattern formation near a key Fibonacci level (e.g., 4.90M UAH) with a stop loss placed below the low of the pattern and a target aligned with the 38.2% or 61.8% retracement. Given BTCUAH’s current position near these levels and the RSI suggesting overbought conditions, this strategy could be tested using historical 15-minute data over the past 30 days. The strategy may benefit from a trailing stop to capture breakouts but must account for low volume and limited liquidity in the pair.