Market Overview for Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) – 24-Hour Summary as of 2025-11-11

Summary
• Bitcoin/Hryvnia declined over the 24-hour period with a bearish bias.
• Volatility expanded after a key breakout failed, exposing 61.8% Fibonacci support.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions, but momentum failed to confirm a reversal.
• Volume activity remained subdued, with most movement occurring during late ET hours.
• MACD diverged from price action, suggesting a potential exhaustion phase in the current trend.

BTCUAH opened at 4,599,740 UAH on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at 4,591,798 UAH on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high reached 4,669,277 UAH, while the low dropped to 4,567,849 UAH. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 0.01381 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately 63.66 million UAH.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern for BTCUAH formed a bearish continuation with a long upper shadow and a moderate body. Key support levels were identified at 4,585,000 UAH (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior 24-hour range) and 4,567,000 UAH, where price paused before retracing. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged on the 15-minute chart during the 11:45–12:00 ET window, signaling a potential trend reversal at the close of the 24-hour window.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs converged around 4,640,000 UAH, indicating a neutral-to-bearish sentiment in recent intraday dynamics. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA (4,650,000 UAH) acted as a resistance, while the 100-period and 200-period SMAs were aligned lower, suggesting a longer-term bearish trend. Price closed below all these lines, reinforcing the bearish stance.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained below the signal line for most of the 24-hour period, with a bearish divergence developing in the final hours as price dipped but the MACD failed to confirm. RSI dropped below 30 for the first time in the 24-hour window during the early hours of 2025-11-11, indicating oversold conditions, but failed to rebound above 50, suggesting limited buying pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the late hours of 2025-11-10 and early 2025-11-11, with the Bollinger Bands widening from 4,640,000 UAH to 4,669,277 UAH on the upper band and 4,585,000 UAH on the lower band. Price closed near the lower band, confirming a period of consolidation and potential exhaustion in the bearish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 18:00–22:00 ET window, coinciding with a failed breakout above the 4,650,000 UAH level. However, the price failed to hold above this level, suggesting a lack of conviction. In contrast, the final 4.5-hour window (05:00–09:00 ET) saw minimal volume, with price drifting lower on thin liquidity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the previous 24-hour range (4,599,740 UAH to 4,669,277 UAH), the 38.2% level at 4,634,000 UAH and the 61.8% level at 4,606,000 UAH were both tested but rejected. Price ultimately closed below the 61.8% level at 4,591,798 UAH, raising concerns about the 50% retracement level (4,634,500 UAH) becoming a potential resistance on a short-term rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtested strategy of entering BTCUAH trades when RSI falls below 30 and holding for five days shows a mixed performance, with a 53.33% win ratio. While the 24-hour analysis highlights an RSI drop to oversold levels, the weak follow-through in momentum and volume may limit the strategy’s effectiveness in the near term. Given the current bearish divergence in MACD and the lack of strong support below current levels, a cautious approach is warranted. Traders might consider integrating a Fibonacci-based stop-loss near 4,567,849 UAH to manage risk.