Market Overview: Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) - 24-Hour Analysis

• Bitcoin/Hryvnia dropped 3.66% in the last 24 hours, forming a bearish breakdown pattern after a long consolidation.
• Price traded between 4,747,727 UAH and 4,849,614 UAH, with key resistance forming at the 20-period EMA.
• RSI reached oversold territory at 28, signaling potential near-term buying interest, though volume remains muted.
• Bollinger Bands show a widening trend, confirming increased volatility, while MACD remains negative with bearish divergence.
• Volume and turnover were low in the morning, surging only during a sharp decline from 4,836,699 UAH to 4,773,186 UAH.

The Bitcoin/Hryvnia pair (BTCUAH) opened at 4,836,699 UAH on 2025-09-23 12:00 ET and closed at 4,814,993 UAH on 2025-09-24 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range saw a high of 4,849,614 UAH and a low of 4,747,727 UAH, reflecting volatile but largely bearish momentum. Total traded volume across 15-minute candles was 0.199 BTC, with notional turnover amounting to approximately 96.4 million UAH.

The price structure over the past 24 hours shows a strong bearish bias after a brief attempt to rally in the early morning hours. A notable breakdown occurred during a 15-minute candle on 2025-09-24 04:15 ET, where price gapped down from 4,777,201 UAH to close at 4,747,727 UAH on heavy volume (0.0118 BTC). This move broke through key support levels and formed a dark cloud cover pattern during the session, reinforcing bearish sentiment. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 2025-09-24 08:15 ET, further confirming the downward trend. The 20-period EMA (4,824,800 UAH) acted as a short-term resistance, which was decisively breached in the afternoon.

MACD remains bearish, with the histogram contracting from positive to negative territory, indicating a weakening bullish momentum. RSI reached 28, signaling a potential oversold condition, but price action suggests a lack of immediate buying interest. Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly, confirming increased volatility, with price currently resting just below the middle band. The lower Bollinger Band now sits at approximately 4,735,000 UAH, suggesting a potential area where further support could materialize if the pair stabilizes.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the 24-hour swing show 61.8% at 4,776,000 UAH and 38.2% at 4,797,000 UAH. Price has tested both levels and failed to hold, indicating a possible continuation of the downward trend. The 15-minute chart 50-period EMA (4,796,000 UAH) is currently acting as a dynamic resistance, which could be a key area to monitor for potential bounces. Volume and turnover have remained inconsistent, with no clear correlation to price action, suggesting the move is driven more by short-term selling than sustained market-wide pressure. A retest of the 4,747,727 UAH low is likely, though a breakdown below that level would trigger further bearish scenarios toward 4,700,000 UAH.

Looking ahead, investors should monitor the 4,747,727 UAH level for signs of a potential bounce or breakdown. A short-term recovery could see a test of the 4,776,000 UAH Fibonacci level, but a breakdown below 4,747,727 UAH could accelerate bearish momentum. Given the current volatility and lack of strong volume confirmation, caution is advised in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent bearish momentum aligns with the backtesting strategy of targeting short-term entry points during confirmed breakdowns of key support levels and Fibonacci retracement areas. Specifically, the strategy involves entering a short position when price closes below a defined support level (here, 4,776,000 UAH) and RSI enters oversold territory, which it did at 28. A stop-loss would be placed just above the most recent swing high (e.g., 4,796,000 UAH), with a target aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci level. The current setup suggests a favorable risk-to-reward profile for a short-term bearish trade, particularly if the move is accompanied by a divergence in MACD or a breakout from the Bollinger Band floor. The 15-minute chart provides the necessary time frame for executing this strategy with tight stops and clear targets, making it a viable backtesting framework for this pair and time period.