Market Overview for Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) - 24-Hour Analysis

• BTCUAH traded in a tight range early, then surged to a 24-hour high before consolidating.
• Volatility spiked during midday ET, though volume remained subdued.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed after the 18:00 ET session, followed by a pullback.
• RSI entered overbought territory midday, suggesting potential exhaustion.
• Price found support near 4,927,338 UAH and resistance near 5,019,586 UAH.

At 12:00 ET–1, BTCUAH opened at 4,951,014 UAH and reached a high of 5,021,000 UAH during the session, with a low of 4,894,885 UAH. The close at 12:00 ET was 4,988,954 UAH. Total traded volume was 0.07663 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately 38,225,554.64 UAH.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour price action for BTCUAH displayed a complex pattern of consolidation and breakout attempts. A notable bullish engulfing candle formed at 19:00 ET, followed by a sharp pullback. A doji appeared around 22:30 ET, signaling indecision among buyers and sellers. A bearish reversal pattern was also visible at 04:30 ET as the price retraced from a high of 5,021,000 UAH. Key support levels appear to be forming around 4,927,338 UAH and 4,950,262 UAH, while resistance is clustered near 5,019,586 UAH and 5,021,000 UAH. The pattern suggests that if buyers can push past 5,021,000 UAH and hold, further upward momentum may follow.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed during the early morning hours, forming a potential golden cross. The 20-period MA currently sits at 4,990,000 UAH, while the 50-period MA is at 4,980,000 UAH. Both averages remain in a bullish alignment. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 200-period MA, but the 100-period MA is approaching the 50-period MA from below, indicating a potential shift in momentum that may become clearer in the next 24–48 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned positive in the midday session, reaching a high of +15,000 UAH before pulling back. The signal line, however, has yet to cross above the MACD line, suggesting a potential divergence. RSI is currently at 58, having peaked at 68 earlier in the session, signaling a brief overbought condition. While momentum is easing, the oscillator remains in a constructive range. A move above 68 could trigger a pullback, while a dip below 50 may indicate waning bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Price action remained within the Bollinger Bands for the majority of the 24-hour period, with a brief excursion above the upper band at 5,021,000 UAH. The bands appear to be widening, indicating increased volatility. The middle band, currently at 4,985,000 UAH, serves as a dynamic support/resistance level. If the price continues to trade near the upper band, a consolidation phase may be imminent.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 19:00–21:00 ET window, coinciding with the bullish engulfing pattern. The highest notional turnover occurred during the 23:15 ET candle, as the price surged from 4,978,863 UAH to 5,001,108 UAH. However, volume has since declined, suggesting a lack of conviction in the recent rally. A divergence between price and volume could indicate a potential reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the key 15-minute swing from 4,894,885 UAH to 5,021,000 UAH, the 61.8% retracement level is at approximately 4,961,000 UAH. The current price of 4,988,954 UAH is near the 50% retracement level, suggesting potential for further consolidation or a test of key support. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level is at 4,985,000 UAH, coinciding with the Bollinger middle band, reinforcing its significance.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for BTCUAH could focus on detecting bullish engulfing and doji patterns on the 15-minute timeframe, combined with RSI divergence and volume confirmation. A buy signal could be triggered when a bullish engulfing candle is followed by a doji within the 20-period MA and RSI enters overbought territory. A stop-loss could be placed just below the low of the engulfing candle, while a take-profit target could be set at the next resistance level or a Fibonacci extension. Given the recent price behavior and pattern formation, this approach could be tested for short-term trades over the next 24–48 hours.