Market Overview for Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH): 24-Hour Analysis as of 2026-01-16 12:00 ET

Summary
• Price moved in tight consolidation before a sharp drop near 19:15 ET, breaking key support levels.
• Volatility increased during the selloff, with volume surging near the low, indicating real selling pressure.
• No clear overbought/oversold RSI levels emerged, but MACD turned negative, suggesting bearish momentum.
• A bullish reversal failed to form near 4335312.0, and the 4341577.0 support is now critical for near-term direction.
• Bollinger Bands constricted before the drop, followed by a sharp expansion, typical of a breakout scenario.

Market Overview

The BTCUAH pair opened at 4379356.0 on 2026-01-15 12:00 ET, peaked at 4416867.0, and closed at 4335312.0 on 2026-01-16 12:00 ET, recording a 24-hour low of 4329056.0. The total traded volume was approximately 0.0199 BTC, and the notional turnover was around 8,654,563.20 UAH.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a bearish breakdown from key resistance at 4416867.0, with a sharp move down to 4329056.0. A long lower shadow candle on the 5-minute chart at 15:15 ET suggested some short-covering, but a subsequent rejection at 4335312.0 signaled ongoing bearish control. The 4341577.0 level now appears to be a pivotal support zone, which may hold or break over the next 24 hours.

Moving Averages

On the 5-minute chart, the 20-EMA and 50-EMA were closely aligned in a downtrend, reflecting the bearish bias. Daily MAs, including the 50, 100, and 200-day, were not fully calculable within the 24-hour window but would typically suggest a more balanced setup if the 200-day MA is near the current price range.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative during the selloff and remained below the signal line, indicating bearish momentum. RSI did not enter overbought territory and hovered around neutral levels, suggesting no extreme short-term overextension. A bearish divergence is not clearly forming yet, but the momentum has been trending downward.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands experienced a contraction before the sharp selloff, followed by a rapid expansion. Price closed near the lower band at 4335312.0, indicating oversold conditions in a volatile environment. This pattern could either precede a bounce or a continuation of the downward drift.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased significantly during the selloff near 4329056.0, confirming the bearish move. Turnover spiked in line with volume, showing no price-turnover divergence. However, the overall volume remains relatively low, suggesting limited participation in the move and potential for choppy follow-through.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci retracement levels from the 4379356.0 to 4416867.0 swing show 61.8% at 4393105.0 and 38.2% at 4398320.0. Price has now broken below the 61.8% level, and the 4341577.0 level (near 38.2% of the next leg down) may act as the next critical support.

The market appears to be in a bearish consolidation phase, with key support levels being tested. If 4341577.0 fails, the next target may be near 4339844.0 or lower. Investors should closely monitor volume and order flow for any signs of short-term reversal, while being mindful of the risk of a deeper pullback should support levels fail to hold.