Market Overview for Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) - 24-Hour Analysis as of 2025-10-09

• BTCUAH surged to a 24-hour high of 5,220,796 UAH but failed to hold above 5,200,000 UAH.
• A bearish reversal pattern emerged after a strong rally, with key support at 5,090,000 UAH.
• Volatility expanded significantly in the second half of the day, with volume concentrated during the pullback.
• RSI hit overbought territory early, suggesting potential exhaustion in the rally.
• Bollinger Bands showed a sharp expansion, indicating a possible shift in trend dynamics.

Opening Summary and Price Movement

Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) opened at 5,155,583 UAH on 2025-10-08 12:00 ET. Over the next 24 hours, it reached a high of 5,220,796 UAH and a low of 5,003,211 UAH before closing at 5,140,715 UAH at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09. Total trading volume for the period was 2.1145 BTC, with notional turnover reaching 10,978,815,759 UAH. The pair displayed a volatile, uneven pattern with several sharp intraday corrections.

Structure & Formations

Price surged from 5,155,583 UAH at 12:00 ET−1 to 5,220,796 UAH early in the session, forming a strong bullish impulse. A bearish reversal pattern appeared around the 5,200,000 UAH psychological level, with a long upper shadow on the 5,220,796–5,118,493 UAH candle. A doji formed near 5,115,794 UAH, suggesting indecision. Key support levels emerged at 5,090,671 UAH and 5,068,659 UAH during the late evening session, while 5,155,583 UAH acted as a short-term floor during the rebound.

Moving Averages and Momentum

A 15-minute 20-period and 50-period moving average crossed in favor of the bulls early in the session, but the 50-period line began to flatten after 19:00 ET, signaling weakening momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period lines remained in a positive alignment, but the 200-period line acted as a dynamic floor. The price closed above its 15-minute 20-period MA but below the 50-period line, indicating a potential bearish bias.

The MACD crossed into the positive territory early in the session, confirming the rally, but the histogram began to contract after 21:00 ET, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum. The RSI peaked at overbought levels (~75) and fell sharply to ~45 by the close, suggesting short-term exhaustion in the rally and a possible pullback.

Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Levels

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the late afternoon and evening session, indicating heightened volatility. Price action hovered near the upper band in the morning, suggesting a bullish bias, but drifted toward the middle band during the afternoon and settled near the lower band by the close.

Fibonacci retracements showed a key 61.8% level at 5,141,007 UAH, which coincided with the closing price. The 38.2% level (5,163,034 UAH) was briefly tested as support during the afternoon rebound but failed to hold. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement level near 5,103,731 UAH appeared as a potential critical support for the next session.

Volume and Turnover

Volume was highly uneven, with spikes of 0.33016 BTC (~1.7 billion UAH) and 0.2284 BTC (~1.2 billion UAH) during the late evening and early morning session. These surges coincided with sharp pullbacks, suggesting increased selling pressure after a strong rally.

Notional turnover mirrored volume patterns, with the largest block occurring at 0.33016 BTC (5095020 UAH) around 09:30 ET. However, volume began to dry up after the 11:15 ET reversal, indicating limited participation in the bearish trend. The volume-to-price divergence late in the session suggests a possible short-term reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the price action observed, a potential backtesting strategy could be based on Fibonacci levels and RSI divergence. A long entry could be considered near the 61.8% retracement level at 5,141,007 UAH, with a stop-loss below 5,068,659 UAH and a target at 5,190,348 UAH. Alternatively, a short position could be triggered on a break below 5,090,671 UAH, with a stop above the 5,163,034 UAH level. The RSI overbought condition early in the session and subsequent divergence with price suggest a mean-reversion setup, especially if the price retests the 5,190,348 UAH resistance with weak volume.