Market Overview: Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) on 2025-11-03

Summary
• Bitcoin/Hryvnia opened at 4,755,078 and closed at 4,638,977 within a 24-hour span.
• The pair saw a high of 4,767,421 and a low of 4,586,475, showcasing a broad price range.
• Volume was muted at 0.04536 BTC, but notional turnover surged to 4,719,222.25 UAH.
• Momentum indicators show overbought and oversold conditions alternating frequently.
• Price appears to be consolidating around 4,600,000–4,700,000 as key support and resistance zones.

Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) opened at 4,755,078 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at 4,638,977 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-03. The 24-hour range spanned from 4,767,421 to 4,586,475, with a total volume of 0.04536 BTC and a notional turnover of 4,719,222.25 UAH.

The 15-minute chart reveals choppy price action with alternating bullish and bearish momentum. Notable formations include a bearish engulfing pattern around 4,762,419 and a doji at 4,659,106. These suggest indecision and potential reversals. Price found support around 4,600,000 and resistance near 4,700,000 during the session.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart (20 and 50) indicate a bearish bias as the 50-period line crossed below the 20-period line earlier in the day. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period lines appear to be converging near the current price, suggesting a potential breakout or continuation phase in the coming days.

MACD and RSI oscillated between overbought and oversold levels multiple times. The RSI crossed below 30 several times during the session, indicating oversold conditions, but failed to generate strong bounces. MACD remained below the zero line, signaling continued bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands were wide, reflecting increased volatility. Price spent a significant portion of the day outside the lower band, reinforcing oversold readings. However, the bands have started to contract slightly in the final hours, hinting at a potential volatility contraction and consolidation.

Volume was generally low, with most candlesticks closing near the open. However, several spikes in volume occurred during sharp price moves, particularly during the drop from 4,762,419 to 4,646,472. These spikes confirmed bearish breakdowns rather than suggesting false moves.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the high of 4,767,421 to the low of 4,586,475 showed price finding support near the 61.8% level at around 4,620,000, which is now acting as a key level. This area may become a pivot for the next 24–48 hours.

Looking ahead, BTCUAH may continue to consolidate around 4,600,000–4,700,000, with the 4,620,000 level acting as a key near-term support. A break below 4,600,000 could trigger renewed selling, but traders should remain cautious about false breakdowns in low-volume environments.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the technical analysis above, an RSI-based strategy could be backtested using BTC-USD as a proxy for BTCUAH due to the current unavailability of the latter's data. Using an RSI(14) ≤ 30 as a buy trigger from 2022-01-01 to present would allow for a clear test of whether BTCUAH’s bearish momentum is aligned with broader Bitcoin trends. If successful, this strategy could be re-applied to BTCUAH with an adjusted conversion from USD to UAH using the USD/UAH exchange rate. This approach would allow for a practical test of the pair's behavior under oversold conditions.