Market Overview for Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) on 2025-11-02

• Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) opened at 4,768,035 UAH and closed at 4,748,576 UAH after a volatile 24-hour session.
• Price reached a high of 4,788,935 UAH and tested a critical support at 4,745,514 UAH.
• A large-volume bullish reversal pattern emerged near the close, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound.
• On-balance volume and turnover diverged during the decline, indicating weak conviction in the bearish move.
• Momentum indicators suggest the market could consolidate before resuming a directional move.

Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) opened at 4,768,035 UAH on 2025-11-01 at 12:00 ET and closed at 4,748,576 UAH the following day. The pair hit a high of 4,788,935 UAH and a low of 4,745,514 UAH, with a total volume of 0.0283 BTC and a notional turnover of approximately 136.9 million UAH over the 24-hour period. Price action shows a volatile bearish trend followed by a bullish reversal pattern near the session close.

The price structure indicates that 4,768,035 UAH and 4,770,878 UAH served as key resistance levels during the early session. A notable bearish breakdown occurred from these levels, taking price below 4,752,724 UAH before a late-session reversal began. A bullish engulfing pattern formed at the close, with a large-bodied candle consuming the prior bearish session. This may signal a short-term countertrend move. On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average is bearish, crossing below the 50-period line, while the 200-period daily MA remains above the current level, suggesting a longer-term bearish bias.

MACD showed bearish divergence in the early part of the session, with the histogram contracting as the bearish move extended. RSI reached oversold territory near the close, indicating a potential pullback could be imminent. Bollinger Bands expanded during the sharp decline and have since contracted, suggesting a period of consolidation may be ahead. The price closed just below the lower band, reinforcing the possibility of a short-term rebound.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing high at 4,788,935 UAH suggest 4,773,176 UAH and 4,764,577 UAH as potential support clusters. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level aligns with the 200-day moving average at approximately 4,755,000 UAH, a potential key pivot for near-term direction. Volume distribution suggests increased selling pressure during the early bearish phase, while the final 2–3 hours of the session showed a volume uptick with a positive price reaction, offering a tentative bearish exhaustion sign.

A bullish engulfing pattern formed near the close of the 24-hour session, with a large-volume green candle consuming a prior bearish red body. This pattern suggests a potential short-term reversal may be underfoot. The RSI entering oversold territory aligns with the pattern, enhancing its significance. Investors should monitor the 4,755,000 UAH level for further confirmation of a bullish breakout attempt, while keeping an eye on Bollinger Band reversion for potential volatility-based entry opportunities.

Backtest Hypothesis
The bullish engulfing pattern observed near the close of the session could serve as a viable entry trigger for a short-term long position. Based on the pattern's characteristics and the RSI entering oversold levels, a backtest strategy would typically involve entering the trade at the open of the next candle following the pattern, with a stop-loss below the engulfing pattern's low and a take-profit aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci level or the upper Bollinger Band. Given the low volume during the majority of the bearish phase and the increased volume during the reversal, this setup could indicate a high-probability trade if confirmed by a break above the 4,755,000 UAH psychological level.