Market Overview for Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) – 2025-10-23

• Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) opened at 4,720,869 UAH, surged to 4,796,457 UAH, and closed at 4,768,831 UAH
• The price exhibited a bearish reversal pattern in the late session, with key resistance near 4,796,457 UAH
• Volatility expanded in the morning, with a sharp drop from 4,707,254 to 4,659,911 UAH followed by a rebound
• On-balance volume spiked during the 4,659,911 to 4,768,831 UAH recovery, indicating potential short-covering
• RSI and MACD showed bearish divergence in the 15-minute chart, suggesting weakening bullish momentum

Price and Volume Action

The 24-hour period for Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) opened at 4,720,869 UAH and reached a high of 4,796,457 UAH. The price closed at 4,768,831 UAH with a total volume of 0.051 BTC and a notional turnover of approximately 24.77 million UAH. A sharp bearish correction was seen in the early part of the session, reaching as low as 4,659,911 UAH, followed by a strong rebound, particularly after 16:30 ET. This suggests increased market participation during critical support levels.

Structure and Candlestick Formations

The session displayed several notable patterns. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged after 21:30 ET as the price dropped from 4,707,254 UAH to 4,659,911 UAH, indicating a short-term top. Later, a strong bullish reversal occurred, marked by a large candle between 4,659,911 UAH and 4,768,831 UAH. A potential resistance level formed at 4,796,457 UAH, while a key support level appears at 4,659,911 UAH. The session ended with a long upper wick on the final 15-minute candle, suggesting short-term indecision.

Technical Indicators

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed in a bearish direction early in the session but later reversed as the price rebounded. The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the bearish phase and then crossed back above during the recovery, showing potential bullish momentum. The RSI moved from overbought levels to oversold before rebounding, suggesting the price was correcting from an extended bullish move. Bollinger Bands widened during the early bearish phase, reflecting increased volatility, and the price closed near the upper band, indicating potential exhaustion of the upward move.

Volatility and Volume Analysis

Volatility increased sharply in the early part of the session, with the price dropping nearly 140,000 UAH in under an hour. This was accompanied by a notable spike in trading volume as the price fell. However, volume surged during the recovery phase, especially between 18:30 ET and 19:15 ET, as the price rebounded from 4,694,838 UAH to 4,714,057 UAH. This volume surge supported the validity of the rebound and indicated short-covering activity. Notional turnover mirrored this trend, with the highest turnover occurring during the late-night rebound.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the key swing high (4,796,457 UAH) and the swing low (4,659,911 UAH) showed the price closing near the 61.8% level of this swing, at 4,732,752 UAH. This suggests the current price may be in the process of forming a corrective move. If the price continues upward and reaches the 78.6% level (4,766,480 UAH), it could indicate a continuation of the bullish trend, although resistance at the 88.6% level (4,788,346 UAH) could cap further gains. The 50% level (4,728,184 UAH) appears to be a key psychological level for the market to break through for a strong bullish confirmation.

Backtest Hypothesis

To further validate the potential of the patterns observed today, a backtesting strategy is proposed. Specifically, a strategy could be tested that looks for the presence of a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern in the 15-minute BTCUAH chart, followed by a short entry with a 3-day hold period. This strategy could be backtested using a supported pair (e.g., BTC-USD or BTC-USDT) as a proxy for BTCUAH due to data constraints. The hypothesis is that such a pattern could signal a short-term reversal in momentum, particularly when confirmed by a volume spike and divergence in RSI or MACD. Testing this approach from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-23 would help quantify its effectiveness in real-world conditions.

Forward-Looking View and Risk Caveat

Looking ahead, the price may face immediate resistance at 4,796,457 UAH. A break above this level could signal a strong bullish reversal, but a failure to hold above 4,766,480 UAH may result in a retest of the 4,659,911 UAH support. Investors should watch for confirmation from volume and divergence in technical indicators to avoid false signals. As always, volatility and macroeconomic factors pose a risk to the near-term outlook.