Market Overview: Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) – 2025-10-22

• Bitcoin/Hryvnia declined sharply in a 24-hour period, closing at 4,700,461 UAH, down from an open of 4,912,349 UAH.
• A strong bearish bias emerged with multiple engulfing patterns and sustained volume during the downturn.
• Volatility expanded notably, with price dipping below key support levels and RSI signaling oversold conditions.
• Turnover increased during the initial sell-off but tapered off toward the close as liquidity thinned.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the decline, suggesting heightened uncertainty and potential for a reversal or continuation.

Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) opened at 4,912,349 UAH on October 21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 4,700,461 UAH on October 22 at 12:00 ET. The pair hit an intraday high of 4,957,994 UAH and a low of 4,680,142 UAH. Total volume over the 24-hour window was approximately 0.17958 BTC, with a notional turnover of roughly 84.86 million UAH. Price action suggests a significant bearish bias, with momentum favoring continued downward movement.

The 15-minute candlestick chart revealed multiple bearish engulfing patterns and deep declines, especially during the early hours of the session. Support levels appear to have been breached, with the 4,700,000 UAH mark acting as a new short-term floor. Resistance is now likely to be found near the 4,850,000 UAH level, which may see a test if a short-term bounce materializes. A doji formed near the 4,700,000 UAH level, hinting at indecision among traders after the sharp drop. The formation of these patterns may indicate a potential continuation of the bearish trend or the beginning of a consolidation phase.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are both below the price, reinforcing the bearish tone. The 50-period MA crossed below the 20-period MA, forming a death cross that increases the likelihood of further downward movement. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages are also aligned in a bearish configuration, with BTCUAH trading below all three. This alignment suggests a continuation of the bearish trend in the medium to long term, barring a significant reversal event.

MACD has turned negative and shows no signs of crossing back above the signal line, indicating ongoing bearish momentum. RSI has dropped into oversold territory, which might suggest a near-term bounce, though caution is warranted given the strong bearish trend. Bollinger Bands are wide, indicating high volatility, with price currently trading near the lower band. This may suggest that further downward movement is possible unless a strong bullish reversal occurs. The price is currently near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the recent swing high to low, which could act as a pivot point.

Backtest Hypothesis
The technical indicators identified—particularly the bearish engulfing patterns—align well with the proposed backtesting strategy, which relies on such formations to trigger short positions. Given the recent pattern density and the strong bearish momentum, the BTCUAH pair appears to be a viable candidate for testing this strategy. The formation of multiple engulfing patterns over the past 24 hours, coupled with the RSI reaching oversold levels, may provide a clear signal for entry and exit points. However, the strategy’s effectiveness over a longer timeframe would depend on the consistency of these patterns and the responsiveness of the market to them. Testing this hypothesis on BTCUAH could offer valuable insight into the adaptability of candlestick-based strategies in a fast-moving, low-liquidity market.