Market Overview for Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) on 2025-10-14

• Bitcoin/Hryvnia declines sharply from 4.96M UAH to under 4.8 million UAH, marking a 4.3% drop in 24 hours.
• Volume spikes during early sell-offs, with over 0.1 BTC traded near 4.85M UAH but fails to confirm buyers.
• Bollinger Bands show expanding volatility, while RSI trends toward oversold territory at 25–30.
• No bullish reversal patterns seen yet; bearish momentum dominates with no short-term resistance above 4.85M UAH.
• Price near key Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level of recent upward swings; potential for further downside to 4.7M UAH.

Bitcoin/Hryvnia opened at 4,937,004 UAH at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 4,801,181 UAH at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high was 4,987,112 UAH, and the low was 4,744,730 UAH. Total volume traded was 0.461 BTC, with notional turnover reaching 226.9 million UAH. Price trends bearish, with a consistent breakdown of key levels and no signs of reversal.

On the 15-minute chart, Bitcoin/Hryvnia has broken below key support levels at 4,850,000 UAH and 4,810,000 UAH. The price action features bearish engulfing patterns in the 04:00–07:00 ET window and a strong breakdown at 4,800,000 UAH. No bullish continuation patterns are visible, and price appears to be consolidating near 4,740,000–4,780,000 UAH. Resistance levels are at 4,820,000 and 4,850,000 UAH, but volume on these levels is weak, suggesting minimal buying interest.

MACD is bearish and trending lower, with the histogram widening on the 15-minute chart, indicating intensifying bearish momentum. RSI has fallen into the 25–30 range, signaling oversold conditions, though no reversal is imminent. Bollinger Bands are widening, reflecting increased volatility, with price now trading near the lower band. This suggests a high probability of further downside before any short-term bounce can be confirmed.

Volume spikes occurred during the early sell-off between 04:00–05:00 ET, with over 0.1 BTC traded, but no follow-through buying was observed. Turnover dropped sharply after 07:00 ET, suggesting a lack of interest or participation from larger players. A divergence between falling price and rising volume in the early morning may indicate exhaustion, but with no follow-through, this remains unconfirmed. The next 24 hours may see further consolidation or a test of the 4.7M UAH level. Investors should be cautious as oversold conditions alone do not guarantee a reversal, and a breakout below 4.7M UAH would likely trigger more bearish sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the current conditions—oversold RSI, weak volume on key resistance levels, and a breakdown below key support levels—applying a backtest strategy is essential to assess the viability of potential entry points or stop-loss triggers.

Since the data provider for the BTC/UAH pair lacks direct technical indicator coverage like RSI and MACD, we have two viable options:
1. Use BTC/USD as a proxy—The BTC/USD pair has full technical indicator coverage and can serve as a foundation for a backtest. After generating results, we can multiply by the USD/UAH exchange rate to approximate BTC/UAH performance. This method is fast, reliable, and avoids data gaps.
2. Calculate RSI from raw BTC/UAH data—Though more time-consuming, this approach allows for a precise backtest tailored to the pair. However, it requires handling the full price dataset and may still face gaps if historical data is incomplete.

Given the urgency and the availability of full technical indicators in BTC/USD, option 1 is recommended to maintain the integrity and speed of the backtest.