Market Overview for Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) on 2025-10-13

• BTCUAH rose from 4,845,187 to 4,965,603 before retracing to close near 4,944,138 at 12:00 ET.
• Key resistance appears at 4,965,603 and support at 4,901,485, with a bullish engulfing pattern visible around 17:30 ET.
• Volume spiked in the midday hours, with a total volume of 0.0488 BTC and turnover of 243.76 million Hryvnia.
• MACD showed positive divergence while RSI briefly entered overbought territory, suggesting potential short-term exhaustion.
• Volatility increased midday, with Bollinger Bands expanding, and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement aligned near the 4,944,138 close.

BTCUAH opened at 4,845,187 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 4,965,603 before retreating to close at 4,944,138 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour session recorded a total volume of 0.0488 BTC and a notional turnover of approximately 243.76 million Hryvnia. The pair showed a volatile pattern, with a key support forming at 4,901,485 and resistance emerging at 4,965,603.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed multiple key candlestick formations, including a bullish engulfing pattern during the 17:30–18:00 ET window as the price rose from 4,901,485 to 4,921,972. A doji formed around 23:15 ET as the price reversed from 4,955,331 to 4,931,639. The 4,901,485 level acted as a strong support, with a series of retests observed in the latter part of the day. Resistance at 4,965,603 was tested twice, with the second attempt failing due to a bearish reversal candle.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed over in the midday period, forming a potential bull flag. The 20SMA remained above the 50SMA through the 8:00–9:00 ET period. On the daily chart, the 50-day moving average is currently above the 200-day line, indicating a longer-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line showed a positive divergence from 19:00–21:30 ET, suggesting momentum in the upward direction. The RSI peaked at 70 during the 21:30 ET hour, reaching overbought territory before a pullback. The oscillator remains in neutral territory near the 50 level, indicating no extreme overbought or oversold conditions.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly from 17:30–20:00 ET, with the Bollinger Bands expanding in width. Price tested the upper band at 4,965,603 before reversing. The lower band remained relatively stable around 4,901,485. The closing price of 4,944,138 lies within the middle 60% of the band, suggesting a consolidation phase is likely.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased sharply during the 17:30–21:30 ET period, with a peak of 0.00408 BTC at 21:30 ET as the price retracted from 4,965,603. Turnover spiked correspondingly, indicating strong conviction in both bullish and bearish phases. A divergence in volume was observed during the late afternoon hours, with a decline in volume despite a continuation of price movement.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 4,845,187 to 4,965,603, the 61.8% level falls near 4,944,138, which coincided with the 24-hour close. A 38.2% retracement is located at 4,925,000. The alignment of these levels with price action suggests the 4,944,138 area could serve as a consolidation point or the start of a new bullish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed divergence in MACD and the alignment of Fibonacci levels with the 4,944,138 close, a backtest could evaluate the effectiveness of a short-entry strategy using MACD crossover signals from 1 January 2022 through today. The BTCUAH pair would be an ideal candidate for this strategy due to its clear overbought RSI readings and bearish reversal patterns. A backtest on this pair would help validate whether the strategy performs in a highly volatile and trend-following market. This analysis could provide empirical insights into the strategy’s viability for future application on similar assets.