Market Overview for Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) on 2025-10-11

• Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) traded in a broad 24-hour range, opening at 5,067,596.0 and peaking at 5,080,669.0 before closing at 4,810,977.0.
• The price formed a bearish channel with multiple bearish engulfing patterns, suggesting ongoing downward momentum.
• Volume spiked during the sharp selloff between 19:00 and 21:00 ET, but turnover weakened near the close.
• RSI reached oversold levels, suggesting potential near-term support at ~4.8 million UAH, though bearish momentum remains strong.
• Volatility expanded mid-day but began to contract toward the end of the 24-hour period.

At 12:00 ET−1, Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) opened at 5,067,596.0 UAH and surged to a high of 5,080,669.0 before retreating throughout the day. By 12:00 ET, it closed at 4,810,977.0, having traded as low as 4,436,645.0. Total volume amounted to 1.7658 BTC, with turnover standing at approximately 1.7658 BTC × average price (~4.8 million UAH), indicating significant participation during key price moves.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart displayed a broad bearish structure with multiple bearish engulfing and inside bars, especially during the sharp declines between 19:15 and 21:15 ET. A key support level emerged near 4.8 million UAH, where price found a temporary floor multiple times. Resistance was observed at ~5.08 million UAH, where price stalled and reversed. A long lower wick in the 19:15 ET candle highlighted rejection at these levels, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50-period) on the 15-minute chart have shifted lower, reflecting the downward trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 100-period MA, forming a potential death cross. The 200-period MA continues to serve as dynamic resistance, with the price hovering below it for much of the 24-hour period. This reinforces the bearish narrative, especially in the context of ongoing UAH volatility.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram remained negative throughout, with the line dipping below the signal line, indicating bearish momentum. The RSI indicator reached a low of ~28 in the final hours, hinting at oversold conditions, although the downtrend remains intact. A failure to break above 50 in the near term could signal a continuation of the bearish phase. Divergences were not observed, suggesting that the bearish momentum and price action remain aligned.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was notably wide during the selloff hours, with the bands expanding. Price traded below the lower band for extended periods, especially during the 21:00 ET–22:00 ET timeframe, signaling heightened bearish pressure. As the bands began to contract toward the close, the market appears to be entering a period of consolidation. However, the price remains near the lower band, suggesting a possible continuation of the downtrend or a pullback to key support levels.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the sharp decline from ~5.08 million UAH to ~4.7 million UAH, confirming bearish conviction. Notional turnover increased significantly during this period, reaching peak levels in the 21:15 ET candle. However, volume and turnover declined sharply in the final hours, suggesting potential exhaustion of sellers. Divergence between price and volume was not strong, but the weak close suggests limited buying interest is currently present.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the major swing from the 21:15 ET low to the 19:15 ET high, the 38.2% (~4.92 million UAH) and 61.8% (~4.81 million UAH) levels were tested. The price found support near the 61.8% level before breaking through, indicating potential continuation toward the 78.6% (~4.68 million UAH) and beyond. A bounce near 4.81 million UAH is a possibility if oversold conditions trigger a short-term rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy leverages key Fibonacci retracement levels and RSI divergence as entry signals, aiming to capture short-term countertrend or trend continuation moves. For BTCUAH, this would involve entering short positions near 61.8% retracement levels if RSI fails to confirm a bounce and remains below 50. Stop-loss placement would be above the nearest resistance or key swing high, while take-profit levels would be aligned with the 78.6% and 100% Fibonacci levels. Given the recent bearish momentum and alignment with Fibonacci levels, this strategy may offer a high-probability setup in the near term.