Market Overview for Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) on 2025-10-08

• BTCUAH rose from 5,067,014 to 5,186,000 UAH amid volatile swings and strong volume surges in the last 4 hours.
• Price tested key resistance at 5,163,034 and 5,186,000, failing to hold above both after temporary breakouts.
• Overbought RSI and tightening Bollinger Bands suggest potential for near-term consolidation or reversal.
• Volume surged in the final 4 hours, but price failed to sustain gains, signaling possible exhaustion.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 5,186,000, signaling caution ahead of the 24-hour closing window.

Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) opened at 5,067,014 UAH on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 5,186,000 UAH on 2025-10-08 at 11:15 ET, hitting a low of 4,994,369 UAH on 2025-10-08 at 05:00 ET. Price closed at 5,155,583 UAH at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 0.03795 BTC, with notional turnover amounting to 18,692,688 UAH.

The price action revealed a bullish bias through the morning, breaking above key levels such as 5,103,731 and 5,133,297 UAH, but failed to sustain above 5,163,034 and 5,186,000 UAH. A bearish engulfing pattern formed after the 11:45 ET candle, with price closing below its 15-minute open. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both bullish on the 15-minute chart, but the 50-period line acted as resistance in the final hours. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA provided support, while the 200-period MA remained bearish, suggesting medium-term uncertainty.

RSI hit overbought territory (70+), peaking near 76, suggesting possible near-term profit-taking or reversal. MACD remained bullish, with a positive divergence forming in the last 4 hours, but the signal line began to flatten as the 15-minute close neared the 12:00 ET window. Bollinger Bands showed a tightening pattern through the late morning, then expanded during the late afternoon as volatility increased. Price hovered near the upper band in the last 4 hours, indicating stretched sentiment.

Volume surged significantly in the final 4 hours, reaching a peak of 0.00488 BTC at 14:15 ET, yet price failed to hold above 5,186,000, suggesting possible exhaustion. Notional turnover was concentrated in the 05:00–09:00 ET window, where volume and turnover spiked during the sharp pullback to 4,994,369 UAH. Divergence between volume and price is evident: while volume increased, price failed to follow through on several breakout attempts.

Fibonacci retracements on the 15-minute chart showed 38.2% and 61.8% levels at 5,118,493 and 5,144,085 UAH, respectively. Price tested the 61.8% level on the 08:45 ET candle and briefly broke above it, but failed to maintain the move. Daily Fibonacci levels from the recent low to the previous high (not shown in 24-hour data) could provide additional support/resistance if extended over a longer timeframe.

Backtest Hypothesis: The described strategy relies on identifying overbought RSI divergences and bearish engulfing patterns near key resistance levels to generate short signals. Given the current BTCUAH price nearing a bearish pattern near 5,186,000 UAH and RSI showing signs of exhaustion, a backtest could confirm the efficacy of entering short positions with stop-loss above 5,186,000 and target near 5,118,493. However, the presence of divergences in volume and the tightening Bollinger Bands suggest caution—false breakouts may occur.