Market Overview for Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) on 2025-10-06

• Bitcoin/Hryvnia opened at 5,163,034 UAH and closed near the unchanged level at 5,185,449 UAH.
• Price action shows a sharp intraday rebound after a mid-day pullback to 5,142,387 UAH.
• High volatility and increased turnover suggest heightened market interest in the pair.
• MACD and RSI indicate rising bullish momentum despite the flat close.
• Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility expansion, with price testing the upper band.

At 12:00 ET-1, Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) opened at 5,163,034 UAH, hitting an intraday high of 5,268,476 UAH and a low of 5,142,387 UAH. By 12:00 ET, the pair closed at 5,185,449 UAH, with a 24-hour volume of 0.01209 BTC and a notional turnover of approximately 64.86 million UAH. The price action exhibited pronounced intraday swings, particularly after 07:45 ET, when a bearish gap opened to 5,142,387 UAH, followed by a rapid rebound.

Structure & Formations

The price action reveals a strong bearish engulfing pattern at 07:45 ET, signaling short-term bearish bias. This was followed by a series of bullish hammer formations, especially after 08:30 ET, suggesting buyers re-entered the market. Key support levels are observed at 5,155,583 UAH and 5,142,387 UAH, both of which saw price bounce after sharp declines. Resistance is currently clustered around 5,185,449 UAH and 5,192,943 UAH. A potential 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 07:45 ET selloff aligns with the 5,163,034 UAH level, where price has remained range-bound for much of the session.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remain in a bullish crossover, supporting the recent uptrend. However, the 50-period MA is closing in on the 5,170,000 UAH level, indicating a potential test of trend strength. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits just below the 200-period MA, suggesting a weak but slightly bullish bias. A move above the 5,192,943 UAH resistance could prompt a test of the 5,203,405 UAH level, aligning with the 100-period MA.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the zero line in the early morning hours and has remained positive, with a bullish divergence forming after the 09:30 ET selloff. The RSI is currently at 57, suggesting moderate bullish momentum and not yet in overbought territory. However, if price breaks above 5,192,943 UAH, RSI may accelerate into overbought conditions, potentially triggering profit-taking.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded during the session, indicating increased volatility. Price closed near the upper band at 5,185,449 UAH, suggesting continued bullish pressure. The mid-band currently aligns with the 5,163,034 UAH level, reinforcing its role as a key support and potential reversal point.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 07:30–08:30 ET window, coinciding with the bearish gap and subsequent rebound. Notional turnover also rose during this period, confirming the strength of the price action. Divergences are not currently evident, but caution is warranted should volume lag price action in the coming 24 hours.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the major 07:45 ET selloff, key levels include 5,155,583 UAH (38.2%), 5,163,034 UAH (50%), and 5,170,495 UAH (61.8%). Price tested the 50% level multiple times and may continue to consolidate in this area before attempting a higher breakout.

Backtest Hypothesis

A viable backtesting strategy could involve a breakout of the 5,192,943 UAH resistance level, with a stop-loss placed below the 5,155,583 UAH support. Given the positive MACD and RSI divergence, a long entry at the close of the candle breaking above 5,192,943 UAH could be considered, with a target at 5,203,405 UAH or higher. This setup leverages the current bullish momentum and aligns with the technical structure observed in the 15-minute and daily charts.