Market Overview for Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) on 2025-10-03

• BTCUAH posted a 24-hour high of 5,163,034 UAH with strong buying pressure after 15:00 ET.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with Bollinger Bands widening following a consolidation phase.
• RSI signaled overbought territory late in the session, suggesting a potential reversal.
• Volume spiked during the bullish breakout but remained muted during retracements.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged in late trading, indicating short-term momentum favoring buyers.

At 12:00 ET–1 on October 2, Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) opened at 5,071,262 UAH and traded to a high of 5,163,034 UAH by 16:00 ET, before closing at 5,163,034 UAH at 12:00 ET the next day. Total traded volume for the 24-hour period was 0.1193 BTC, and notional turnover reached approximately 56.32 million UAH. Price action showed strong conviction in the late morning and afternoon, with bearish consolidation early and bullish momentum gaining dominance by the end.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart displayed a bullish trend after a brief period of consolidation. Key support was identified at 5,062,625 UAH, which held firm multiple times before the breakout. A notable bullish engulfing pattern appeared near the close, confirming renewed buying interest. The price tested a prior resistance level at 5,134,947 UAH and broke through, forming a clear breakout structure. A doji appeared around 5,089,012 UAH during consolidation, signaling indecision before the eventual move higher.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages diverged, with price consistently above both by the end of the session. This suggests strengthening upward momentum. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period moving average was crossed above, supporting the view that a new uptrend may be forming. The MACD histogram showed a positive crossover and expanding bars, indicating growing bullish momentum. RSI moved into overbought territory (70+) in the final hours, suggesting the trend may pause or correct in the near term.

Volatility and Volume Behavior

Bollinger Bands expanded during the final three hours of the session, indicating rising volatility. Price remained near the upper band for much of the breakout, confirming strong momentum. Trading volume surged during the 15:00–16:00 ET window, coinciding with a breakout above 5,134,947 UAH. Notional turnover also increased during this period, suggesting institutional or large-cap buyer participation. However, volume remained low during the consolidation phase, indicating a lack of conviction from sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing (from 5,062,625 UAH to 5,134,947 UAH), the 50% retracement at 5,098,786 UAH acted as a minor support level. The 61.8% level at 5,100,000 UAH was tested but rejected during a midday pullback. For the daily swing (from 5,062,625 UAH to 5,163,034 UAH), the 38.2% retracement at 5,115,000 UAH provided support during a short-term correction. These levels may become relevant in the next 24 hours as potential zones for consolidation or reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy focuses on identifying breakout opportunities using a combination of moving average crossovers, volume spikes, and Fibonacci retracement levels as confirmation. Based on today's action, a long entry could have been triggered when price broke above 5,134,947 UAH and volume surged. A stop-loss could have been placed just below the 50% retracement level at 5,098,786 UAH. The strategy appears to align well with today’s price action, suggesting it could be effective in capturing continuation moves after consolidation periods.