Market Overview for Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) – 2025-09-25

• BTCUAH traded in a tight range for most of the day but broke lower in overnight Asian hours.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 01:30 ET with strong volume, signaling potential bearish momentum.
• Price closed near the session low with no clear support, suggesting further downside could be in play.
• Volatility increased after 01:30 ET, with a notable drop of ~5.3% in 3.5 hours, indicating possible selling pressure.
• RSI shows oversold conditions, but divergence with price could hint at a possible short-term rebound.

The Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) pair opened at 4,849,614 UAH on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 4,748,403 UAH on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high was 4,853,000 UAH, and the low reached 4,740,387 UAH. Total volume traded over the 24-hour period was 0.03594 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately 17.29 million UAH.

Over the session, the price formed a key bearish engulfing pattern around 01:30 ET (2025-09-25 01:30:00), which confirmed a significant reversal from a prior consolidation. The pattern was accompanied by a relatively strong volume spike of 0.00201 BTC, indicating a shift in sentiment. Following that, a sharp decline continued until the session close, forming a bearish continuation with no immediate support identified. Price action in the last 6 hours showed some consolidation near the low, though with weak volume, suggesting traders are cautious ahead of potential news or volatility.

Structure & Formations

The bearish engulfing pattern formed at the start of the downward move is a strong technical signal of a trend reversal. Price found no meaningful support below 4,740,000 UAH, and the recent lows have not shown any significant buyers stepping in. A doji was observed at 05:30 ET, indicating indecision in the market, but it failed to spark a reversal. A key level to watch for near-term support is at 4,760,700 UAH, where price has previously bounced or stalled. Above, a 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart now rests at ~4,777,200 UAH and acts as a resistance level.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both crossed below 4,777,000 UAH, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-day moving average is at ~4,825,000 UAH, while the 200-day average is around 4,860,000 UAH. Price is now well below both, confirming a bearish trend with potential for further downside. If the price fails to hold above the 50-period MA, it may continue to test the 4,740,000 UAH level again.

MACD & RSI

MACD lines turned negative during the bearish move, with a bearish crossover observed at 01:30 ET. The histogram showed a strong bearish divergence following the engulfing pattern. RSI has entered oversold territory (~25), but without a strong bullish reversal, this could indicate a bear trap or consolidation ahead of further declines. Divergence in RSI and price suggests that momentum may be weakening but not necessarily reversing.

Bollinger Bands

Price action has moved below the lower Bollinger Band since the early hours of the session. Volatility increased during the decline but has since narrowed slightly, suggesting a potential pause in momentum. If price remains under the lower band without a strong bounce, it could signal a continuation of the bearish move. The upper band currently sits at ~4,815,000 UAH, a potential retest level if a short-term rebound occurs.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the bearish engulfing pattern and continued to support the downward move, with a total 24-hour volume of 0.03594 BTC traded. Notional turnover reached 17.29 million UAH, with the largest single-volume spike occurring at 01:30 ET. However, in the last 6 hours, volume has been weak, indicating reduced conviction in the move lower. This may suggest a period of consolidation or anticipation for news, but without a clear reversal pattern, the bearish trend remains intact.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is currently at ~4,755,000 UAH, aligning with recent price action. A failure to hold above this level could see the price testing 4,740,000 UAH next. On the 15-minute chart, retracements from the high at 4,853,000 UAH to the low at 4,740,387 UAH show a 38.2% level at ~4,815,000 UAH, where a possible short-term bounce may be expected if volume increases.

Backtest Hypothesis

A possible backtest could involve entering a short position on the confirmation of a bearish engulfing pattern and a break below the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed just above the 20-period MA. Targets could be set at 4,755,000 UAH (61.8% retracement) and 4,740,000 UAH (previous swing low). This strategy would aim to capitalize on the continuation of the bearish trend while limiting downside risk with a dynamic stop. A trailing stop could be used once the price reaches the 61.8% retracement level to lock in gains and ride further declines.