Market Overview for Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) on 2025-09-21

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• Price dipped sharply from 4.95M UAH to 4.92M UAH amid bearish momentum, ending below key resistance.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions earlier, now trending into oversold territory.
• Volume declined significantly in the final 6 hours, indicating fading seller pressure.
• Bollinger Bands showed tightening before a breakout move lower near 4.923M UAH.
• No clear reversal candlestick pattern formed, suggesting continued bearish bias.

The Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) pair opened at 4,946,816 UAH on 2025-09-20 at 16:00 ET and closed at 4,922,367 UAH at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-21, reaching a high of 4,949,509 UAH and a low of 4,922,367 UAH. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 0.0129 BTC, with a nominal turnover of approximately 63.65 million UAH. Price action displayed a clear bearish bias, especially after a sharp drop in the final 90 minutes of the reporting window.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart formed a descending triangle pattern as price failed to break above the key resistance at 4.94M–4.95M UAH. The breakdown occurred with a bearish engulfing pattern near 4.923M UAH, indicating strong selling pressure. Notably, a doji formed during the consolidation phase near 4.934M UAH, signaling indecision but failing to produce a reversal. A critical support level appears to be forming around 4.922M UAH, which may offer some near-term stability.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are converging downward, confirming the bearish trend. The short-term momentum remains below both, suggesting continuation of the downtrend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is likely above the 100-period MA, with the 200-period MA acting as a long-term support level. Price is currently below both the 50 and 100-period MAs, reinforcing the bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish as the histogram contracted and the line crossed below the signal line, signaling weakening bullish momentum. RSI fell from overbought territory (70+) to near 30, indicating oversold conditions. However, this does not necessarily signal a reversal—RSI in oversold may persist during strong trends. A divergence between price and RSI has yet to emerge, suggesting the move lower could continue.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a brief contraction during the consolidation phase, followed by a sharp downward breakout. Price gapped below the lower band after the engulfing pattern, confirming the breakdown. This suggests increased volatility and potential continuation toward the next support level at 4.918M UAH.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked moderately during the breakdown phase but declined significantly in the final six hours of the reporting window. Despite the decline, nominal turnover remained stable due to the falling price, indicating that sellers are still active but with decreasing conviction. No major divergence between price and volume has been observed.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the key swing high at 4.9495M UAH and the low at 4.9224M UAH, the 38.2% level is at 4.937M UAH and the 61.8% level at 4.928M UAH. Price stalled near both levels before continuing lower. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels from the broader move over the past week suggest a potential support at 4.915M UAH as a key area to watch.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtest strategy focuses on identifying breakdown patterns on the 15-minute chart, such as bearish engulfing and doji formations, in conjunction with RSI entering oversold territory. Given the recent price action, a hypothetical long-term bearish position entering after the 4.923M UAH breakdown and exiting near the 4.922M UAH support could have yielded a small profit. However, the low volume in the final hours raises uncertainty about the strength of the breakdown. A backtest over a larger historical dataset would be needed to validate this strategy's consistency.