Market Overview for Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) on 2025-09-14

• Bitcoin/Hryvnia declined on low volume, closing near a key Fibonacci support level.
• Volatility remained subdued, with price consolidating within Bollinger Bands.
• MACD and RSI show no strong momentum; market appears range-bound.
• No notable candlestick patterns emerged to suggest reversal or continuation.

The Bitcoin/Hryvnia pair (BTCUAH) opened at 4,942,608 UAH on 2025-09-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at 4,920,482 UAH at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-14. The 24-hour range was between 4,942,608 UAH (high) and 4,920,482 UAH (low). Total volume traded over the period was approximately 0.0883 BTC, translating to a notional turnover of around 43.3 million Hryvnia.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours showed a gradual decline from the 4,942,608 UAH level, forming a bearish consolidation pattern without a clear breakout. The most recent candle on the 15-minute chart at 16:00 ET was a doji-like structure near the 4,920,482 UAH level, which may indicate potential support forming. A minor bearish engulfing pattern occurred around the 14:00 ET time frame, suggesting a short-term bearish bias. Key support appears to be forming at or near the 4,920,482 UAH level, while resistance is likely at the 4,934,967 UAH level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price has been hovering slightly below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, suggesting a potential bearish bias in the short term. Over the daily timeframe, a 50-period MA at approximately 4,939,000 UAH may act as a near-term resistance if price attempts a rebound. The 100- and 200-period moving averages are not currently in play but could become relevant if the trend shifts.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram remained negative throughout the period, with the line trending downward, indicating bearish momentum. The RSI closed at approximately 42, suggesting the market is in a neutral, non-oversold or overbought zone. This implies that while there’s no immediate reversal signal, the price remains vulnerable to further downward pressure if sentiment shifts.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained low, with price staying near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. The bands themselves have been narrow for much of the period, indicating a potential contraction and a possible breakout or breakdown scenario. If price holds above 4,920,482 UAH, it may test the upper band on a rebound, but a break below that level could trigger increased bearish movement.

Volume & Turnover

Volume activity was light, with the majority of trading occurring during the 20:15–20:30 ET and 08:45–09:00 ET windows. Notional turnover spiked briefly during those periods but failed to confirm any meaningful price movement. There was no clear divergence between volume and price, and the overall trend remains consistent with the bearish bias.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, recent price action has tested the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the 4,942,608–4,920,482 UAH move. A break below 4,920,482 UAH could target the 61.8% level at 4,908,043 UAH. Daily Fibonacci levels remain less relevant, as the broader trend has been flat to slightly bearish.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when price closes below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and a closing RSI below 50. Stops are placed above the 20-period moving average, and exits are triggered by either a RSI rebound above 60 or a break above the 50-period MA. This strategy aligns with the observed technical conditions today and could be tested for efficacy in a live or historical backtesting environment.