Market Overview: Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) – 2025-09-10

• Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) closed higher by 4.85% amid a volatile 24-hour session with sharp intraday swings.
• Momentum shifted from bearish to bullish, with RSI nearing overbought territory and MACD showing positive divergence.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly, signaling increasing volatility as price approached the upper band.
• Volume was uneven, with key spikes during bullish reversals and low-volume consolidation periods.
• Fibonacci levels highlighted potential resistance at 4,814,715 and support at 4,763,274 for near-term directional bias.

The BTCUAH pair opened at 4,748,201 at 12:00 ET – 1, and closed at 4,806,102 by 12:00 ET today, logging a high of 4,857,122 and a low of 4,741,251. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 0.10349 BTC, while notional turnover amounted to 49.299 million UAH. The session was marked by a sharp rebound from a midday trough, with a 15-minute bullish reversal forming around 4,747,727 UAH.

Structure & Formations

Price action unfolded in a textbook V-shaped recovery, breaking above 4,769,007 in the early hours and forming a bullish engulfing pattern around 4,763,274. A notable bearish doji emerged at 4,784,598, signaling indecision before a strong rally. Key support levels were identified at 4,747,727 and 4,763,274, with resistance forming at 4,796,588 and 4,814,715. The structure suggests a high probability of a continuation in the bullish direction if 4,814,715 is convincingly breached.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price moved above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages in the final hours, confirming a short-term bullish bias. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) indicate a broader uptrend, with the 50-period line at 4,784,383 acting as a dynamic support. The convergence of short- and long-term indicators supports a continuation in the current trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the zero line with a strong positive histogram, signaling growing momentum. RSI moved toward overbought territory, peaking near 70, but showed divergence from price as a 15-minute high formed at 4,857,122. This suggests caution for further gains without a pullback. However, the divergence remains relatively shallow, and bullish sentiment appears to be resilient.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly as price moved toward the upper Bollinger Band, reaching as high as 4,857,122 UAH. The midline was at 4,784,383, and the lower band hovered near 4,714,054. Price action remained within the bands, suggesting a continuation of the trend rather than a reversal. A break above the upper band could trigger further short-term gains.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was concentrated in key reversal moments, particularly the bullish breakout from 4,763,274 and the subsequent rally to 4,857,122. Notional turnover spiked at 4,844,188, with a large buy-side volume of 0.01126 BTC confirming bullish conviction. However, low-volume consolidation phases, especially after 4,784,598, may indicate potential pullbacks if buyers fail to step in.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute swings saw price retesting the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 4,769,007 and then the 61.8% level at 4,796,588. For the daily move from 4,741,251 to 4,857,122, key retracement levels are at 4,763,274 (38.2%) and 4,796,588 (61.8%). A bounce off 4,763,274 could confirm the continuation of the trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy involving a 15-minute RSI divergence signal paired with a bullish engulfing pattern could yield a high-probability entry. Entries would be triggered when RSI shows a bullish divergence (price low, RSI high) and a bullish engulfing pattern forms at a key support level. Stop-loss would be placed below the recent swing low, with take-profit targets at the next Fibonacci resistance and upper Bollinger Band. Given the recent divergence and pattern formation around 4,763,274, this setup offers a compelling case for a directional trade.