Market Overview for Bitcoin/Hryvnia on 2025-10-03

• Bitcoin/Hryvnia opened at 5,071,262 UAH and surged to an intraday high of 5,139,047 UAH before consolidating.
• A sharp pullback to 5,059,702 UAH occurred mid-session, forming a bearish engulfing pattern before a partial recovery.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the Asian session, with RSI nearing overbought levels.
• Turnover spiked during the morning hours, confirming a bullish breakout attempt but failed to sustain.
• A key support level emerged at 5,059,702 UAH after a consolidation phase and a bullish reversal pattern.

The BTCUAH pair opened at 5,071,262 UAH on October 2, 2025, and reached an intraday high of 5,139,047 UAH before declining. The 24-hour range extended to 5,059,702 UAH, with a closing print of 5,081,649 UAH as of 12:00 ET. Total traded volume amounted to 0.082 BTC, while notional turnover reached 42.28 million UAH. The session featured a bearish engulfing pattern and a failed breakout attempt on the 15-minute chart.

Structure & Formations

The BTCUAH 15-minute chart displayed a bullish morning rally, reaching a high of 5,139,047 UAH, followed by a bearish consolidation phase. Key resistance levels emerged at 5,102,075 UAH and 5,139,047 UAH, while a critical support level formed at 5,059,702 UAH following a bullish reversal pattern. A doji formed at 5,062,625 UAH, suggesting indecision during the overnight hours. The formation of a bearish engulfing pattern near 5,062,625 UAH indicated potential short-term profit-taking.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages trended higher, with the 50-period line lagging behind the price action, indicating a potential pullback. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed above the 100-period MA, reinforcing a bullish bias. The 200-period MA remained well below the current price, suggesting that the pair is trading above its long-term average and may continue to test resistance.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a bullish divergence in the morning session, with the line crossing above the signal line, but it faded as bearish momentum reemerged. RSI reached 65 by midday, near overbought territory, and subsequently declined into the 50–55 range, indicating reduced bullish conviction. The pair may continue to oscillate within the 5,059,702–5,139,047 UAH range as momentum stabilizes.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the Asian session, with the upper band reaching 5,139,047 UAH and the lower band dropping to 5,059,702 UAH. The price closed near the midpoint of the bands, suggesting a possible consolidation phase. A contraction in the width of the bands could precede a breakout attempt in either direction, with key levels aligned to the 50-period MA and prior swing highs.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the morning hours, reaching a peak of 0.00268 BTC at 5,102,075 UAH, confirming the bullish move. However, subsequent volume dried up during the consolidation phase, indicating a lack of follow-through. Notional turnover spiked during the breakout attempt but failed to exceed 1.5 million UAH. A divergence between volume and price action during the consolidation phase may signal weakening momentum ahead.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 5,059,702–5,139,047 UAH move, key retracement levels include 5,113,950 UAH (38.2%) and 5,085,280 UAH (61.8%). The 61.8% level aligned with the 50-period MA and the recent consolidation zone, making it a probable support area. A break below 5,059,702 UAH would trigger a deeper retracement phase, targeting 5,047,800 UAH.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering a long position when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA and RSI enters the 30–40 range. A stop-loss is placed below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, while the take-profit target is aligned with the 38.2% retracement level. This approach would have captured the morning rally on 2025-10-03 but may have been invalidated by the bearish engulfing pattern and subsequent consolidation. The strategy’s success depends on confirming volume and momentum divergence signals.