Market Overview for Bitcoin/Eurite (BTCEURI) – October 4, 2025

• Price action shows a sharp 15-minute rally followed by consolidation and a pullback to close near 103,700.
• Momentum indicators suggest weakening bullish pressure with RSI hovering near neutral levels.
• Volatility remained elevated through midday, but volume declined in the latter half of the session.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the peak rally before narrowing, signaling a potential period of consolidation.
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest potential support at 103,700 and resistance near 104,400.

24-Hour Summary

Bitcoin/Eurite (BTCEURI) opened at 103,793.19 at 12:00 ET − 1, reached a high of 105,413.87 and a low of 103,338.2, and closed at 103,727.89 at 12:00 ET today. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 10.35318, and notional turnover came in at approximately 1,068,082.83 EUR (calculated from cumulative open × volume).

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a bullish breakout pattern in the early afternoon, peaking at 105,413.87 before a sharp reversal and decline. The structure resembles a “shooting star” at the top of the rally, followed by a “piercing line” as the price reclaimed some lost ground. Key support appears to be forming at the 103,700–104,000 range, while resistance is visible at 104,300 and 105,000.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed briefly as the price surged, indicating a short-term bullish signal. By the close, the price was below the 20SMA, suggesting weakening momentum. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period moving averages are in a bullish alignment, while the 200SMA remains bearish, indicating mixed signals for the longer term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a sharp positive spike during the afternoon rally but reversed into negative territory, signaling bearish momentum. The RSI reached 63–64 during the peak rally but fell back into the neutral range (40–60) by the close. While not indicating overbought conditions, the RSI divergence with price suggests caution as the market could be due for a pullback or sideways consolidation.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the afternoon rally, pushing the price above the upper Bollinger Band. However, the price has since retracted and closed near the middle band, indicating a potential period of consolidation. The narrowing of bands in the evening suggests decreasing volatility, which could precede a breakout or breakdown depending on order flow.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the afternoon rally, with the highest single 15-minute volume spike reaching 1.99029 as the price moved from 104,092.79 to 104,550.0. However, the latter half of the session saw a decline in volume and turnover, especially from 10:00 PM ET onward. This divergence between price and volume may indicate weakening conviction behind the recent rally and a higher risk of a pullback.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 103,338.2 to 105,413.87, the 61.8% level is at 104,250 and the 38.2% at 104,450. These levels appear to be acting as immediate resistance. On the daily timeframe, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracements from the prior month’s high align with 103,700 and 105,400, respectively, offering a key area of interest for near-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering long positions when price closes above the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bullish MACD crossover and RSI crossing above 50. Stops are placed below the 20-period moving average, and targets are set at the nearest Fibonacci resistance level. Short positions are triggered when price closes below the 20-period moving average, confirmed by a bearish MACD crossover and RSI below 50. The 15-minute timeframe and volume spikes provide entry confirmation. This approach may work in trending environments but could struggle in range-bound conditions.